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While the Fed raised worries with talk of raising rates in the future, should unemployment stay below 6.5%,  in the long run it might be the best thing for this market to normalize.
We have had interest rates near zero for 5 years now.  Flash back to 2009, March with the S&P at 666,  the Dow at 6500 and a complete liquidity crisis.
60 months later,  the indexes have more than doubled.  2013 saw 30% returns in the market,  while the “inflation” hedge ( long commodities and gold)  had a negative 30% return.

The S&P is in a nice channel upward going back to December […]

We’ had a 6 percent down move in the SPH; We had a 7.9% down move in the Dow Jones. We got a bit of a bounce; that bounce got the bulls feeling better about things.
I have upside targets of 1775 and then 1789 in SPH if we continue to rally.  15740 and 15890 if we get the bounce in the Dow.
The initial  reaction to the number will be violent.  Its really a coin flip.

My own personal bias is there is another leg down so we get the full 10% correction lower;
Because of that, although I have a profitable long position, I […]

The low on October 9th was 1633.  The record high was 12/31/13 at 1846.
Yesterday we finally found support at the 1740 level,  which was the 50% retracement. For now it  looks like we’ve stopped the bleeding lower.
That could change should 1740 fail on another test lower  Next stop below would be 1715 should that happen.

A lot of bears have sub 1700 in their sights.  That remains to be seen, however.   Friday’s unemployment number could be the catalyst for a test of that level,  or […]

The low on October 9th was 1633.  The record high was 12/31/13 at 1846.
Yesterday we finally found support at the 1740 level,  which was the 50% retracement. For now it  looks like we’ve stopped the bleeding lower.
That could change should 1740 fail on another test lower  Next stop below would be 1715 should that happen.

A lot of bears have sub 1700 in their sights.  That remains to be seen, however.   Friday’s unemployment number could be the catalyst for a test of that level,  or […]

Looking at a longer=term weekly chart,  March S&P futures we posted a low at 1357.50   in December of 2012l  In October of 2013,  we ticked 1633.50.  The next intersection point on that support trend line is 1746.  We settled at 1763.   Roughly another 20 handles of air beneath this market.  Please look at the chart below

Looking at a longer=term weekly chart,  March S&P futures we posted a low at 1357.50   in December of 2012l  In October of 2013,  we ticked 1633.50.  The next intersection point on that support trend line is 1746.  We settled at 1763.   Roughly another 20 handles of air beneath this market.  Please look at the chart below

This is a daily chart of Feb 13 Silver.  1703 was the high on 1/23/13 That’s the first part of the T-Line I am looking at.  The second hit is the August high at 1428.  We hit it 3 more times on October 28,29 and 30 right at the 1360 level.

Every rally has a short half-life.  About a month ago, I wrote two or 3 entries about making a stand at 1200  we settled 4 times below that key in late December.
we were stopped out of […]

14588  on October 10, 2013.  16540 all time high 12/31/13.  Again we challenged at 16489 on 1/21– just 9 days ago….

That was a 1,952 point rally.

Yesterday’s low 15,643

That is a 897 point sell off over 7 trading days.

This  is a 4.5% correction which I rounded up to 5% for arguments sake.

The December low was 15,608.  I had resting orders do buy it down there that obviously didn’t get filled because we never traded there.

At this point, I’d be looking to buy dips, anticipating a pop back up to 15794 or 15987 or 16092.  Those upside targets represent 25,  38 […]

This is a weekly chart of DJH.
The Trend-line support was loudly trounced to day and the TV commentators are looking gloomy.
A 339 point drop in a day.
16489 to 15806  THAT is the interesting break. From the high Tuesday til Today’s low— That’s  4%.

Is a 4% correction from record highs,  really  something to light your hair on fire over?  I don’t believe so.

In October,  we traded down to 14,588.. On October 9th.    Every one knows that we had the 1929  market crash in October.

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