Written By Chris Robinson
Corn: CH closed down 1-1/2 cents at $4.22. New crop CZ 14 settled down ¾ cent at $4.50 ¼. There was little news on the wire, save a re-cap of 2014, which notably had corn in last place of 24 commodities tracked by the GSCI. Corn finished down 39% on the year, which was also the largest percentage drop for corn since 1960. Traders await the USDA report on Friday January 10th. South American weather continued to be non-threatening in the 10 to 14 day […]
With just a hand full of trading days left, you are probably best served by doing very little trading.
Overnight markets were closed due to the Christmas Day break. Today at 8:30 we opened up to a sea of red in the grains as traders ran from long positions. China canceled some DDG shipments (Dried Distillers Grain) this is a by product from the ethanol production (which interestingly made for a chunk of the profits from the ethanol production process. DDG’s are used as a feed substitute.
These were rejected due to GMO hits for positive on some loads. Speculation is rife as to […]
Today we have a half day and then on Thursday we start back up. With just 4 1/2 trading days left in the year, I’d be very careful putting any thing on.
We’ll start with the grains:
Wheat looks poised to take out $6.00. Below there I’d be looking to put on speculative longs to fade the herd who are going to try to press it lower.
Beans: Remain mired in a range between 13.13 and 13.50. Trade the break out, but look for a flush lower because the funds maintain a huge long position. If they need to bale, it could get ugly to […]
I wrote about trying to catch the falling knife of Gold at 1220. There were a few fleeting attempts at salvaging that level. last week we traded 1213 and then snapped back to 1267 effectively car-jacking any one who sold against that trend line too early. That 54 dollar rally translated to $1800.00 loss on every mini future you might have been short. Not to be over done, the market turned and dropped 73 bucks between that high and today’s fresh 4 year low. The round number $1200 is now in play and a lot of folks are now talking 1000 as the next stop. […]
Written by Chris Robinson
Corn: March corn settled down 1 ¾ cents at $4.25. CZ14 settled down ½ cent at $4.53 ¾. Corn spiked higher to $4.29 ¾ early and then sold off in sympathy with the wheat and beans the rest of the day. Corn attempted some independent strength, but fresh contract lows in wheat took the sails out of any rally. The managed speculative funds are net short 110,000 contracts of corn. It looked like a little short covering early on, but the trend remains down. Today […]
Look back to 2011 when Silver took a shot at $50.00 an ounce. The high was 48.57 the week of April 25th 2011. A little post- tax day present for all the metal bulls. Sadly, that was the beginning of a 30 month swoon. This March Silver broke through the bottom support of a major weekly trend line support. We were flirting with $30.00 an ounce. That failure took us down to the June low of 18.21. From the high in 2011 to that low, you’re looking at a 30.36 an ounce loss. That’s 62 1/2 % haircut. Did you invest 100 bucks in silver […]
We’ve been seeing 85 Billion a month from the Fed for quite a while now. The last time there was an inkling that the fed might “taper”, we had a correction.
Now it seems people are covering the Fed announcement this week like the Super bowl
In my opinion a 50/50 chance at a cut is a stupid bet for both bulls and bears. Fact: We are at record highs in the indexes, with the Dow rallying 1500 pts since October 9th. That’s 1500 pts in 40 trading days.. So much for those of you who got short because you feared the fed then.
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This is a weekly chart of December Gold. Last Week we tested that long-term trend line. Last week’s low at 1213 just kissed that line. We promptly ralliesd up to 1267. We’ve rolled back over in choppy trade to where we are at 1233 as I write this.
Today’s intersection is 1220.
News on the wire talks of a massive short position by managed futures. No doubt they are looking for the 1200 print to fail and then there would be a big psychological push to go […]
Above is a weekly continuation chart for Corn. 2008/2009 saw a spike up above $8.00. In 2010 we began a 3 year rally up culminating with Summer 2012 peaking above $8.00 again.
In my opinion, many of the factors which were present between 2010 and now are now dissipated. Gone is the fear of rampant inflation. We saw huge influx of outside fund money as money poured into the market. Gold rallied and in general the commodity as a hedge for inflation sales pitch was rampantly considered “prudent”. […]
With 14 Trading Days left in 2013, consider these two trend lines in DJZ. A pop above or below could give us some activity as we move into the end of the year. Trend lines are funny. Every one I know looks at them, but generally don’t admit that they look at them. They Do NOT ALWAYS WORK! So that’s enough reason for a lot of people to completely discount them.
I don’t think it makes sense to ignore something that is so blatant. Whether or not […]