Uncategorized

No Death Blow from the USDA

Posted on by Chris Robinson

Busy day today so this will be brief.
USDA was bearish but not as bearish as a lot of folks had been predicting.   You can look at all the break down of the data yourself.  There are plenty of good sources out there, and I am really not going to reiterate 6 pages of data.
Key points are 1) lowered corn acres, balanced out higher yield  160.4 yield on lower acres.  USDA lowered acres 2million.   also USDA increased feed usage by 100 million bushels, and increased exports of 175 million.   My biggest bearish concern? They increased world wide carry by 900 million bushels.

As for […]

For Hedgers Only: USDA in 48 hours

Posted on by Chris Robinson

Corn: December corn closed down 3 ¾ cents at $4.21 ¼ which is the lowest settlement in 39 months. Corn had a very light trade overnight, tried to rally for the first 20 minutes, posting a high at $4.26, and then began a slow grind down to new lows. The $4.25 area had been support. The next level on the charts is $4.17 posted on August 12, 2010. After that we are looking at the contract low of $3.98 ¼ posted on June 29, 2010. Today, China and Brazil […]

Contrarian play in Beans prior to USDA

Posted on by Chris Robinson

Break Down as follows:  August Low in SF?  1169  September High 1406 1/4.  Half way back? $12.87
62% retracement– $12.60
 
Today we settled at 12.50 1/4….

Between now and Friday the contrarian play would be to take a long position.

Every one on the planet is bearish.

Food for thought.

We could rally back to $13.00,  hurt all the weak shorts… squeeze them out and then resume the down trend.
We’d have to get above $13.40 to change the trend back to bullish.  so… I’ll be […]

Friday weekend Wrap up- Welcome to November

Posted on by Chris Robinson

Looking ahead for next week the biggest feature will be USDA report on Friday the 8th. The big enchilada probably until the always nasty January report.
what to do?
First
1)funds still long beans  2)still short wheat and corn.
2) The long bean play is looking worse and worse. We settled under the 200 day moving average today by 11 cents. 

Earlier in the day I had actually bought a small spec position looking for funds to come and defend that price.  We got stopped out for just a 3 to 4 cent loss.
At this  point, every fund manager out there probably got […]

For Hedgers Only, 10/31/13

Posted on by Chris Robinson

 
October 31, 2013

Corn: CZ closed down 2 cents at $4.28 ¼, which is a new 3 year low settlement. New crop CZ 14 corn fell to a new life-of-contract low settlement at $4.69 ½. At 7:30 AM the […]

Downside Target on Dow shorts 15175

Posted on by Chris Robinson

If you followed my suggestion on Oct 29th,  two days ago and got short the Dow futures at 15650,  you are looking at a 150 tick winner so far.
Make sure you put in a trailing buy stop.
This Market could turn on a dime and spike back up heading into the weekend.

Maintain the short position, but look at 15,175 as an ultimate target to cover and actually get long.

This is purely a technical trade off of this Weekly Trend line going back to December 2012.
Hope you have it on. 
I did some for some clients.  Some I missed because […]

Trend line in Jan Beans to Sell: Good Exports don’t trade higher on good exports

Posted on by Chris Robinson

1) funds are still long 70K estimated beans.  short 220K estimated corn.

Why when we get good exports did we see beans only rally a nickel.?  SX made it back to the 13.00 print. What a gift.  Just Tuesday we were down at 12.68, sweating out the longs who took beans after expiration.   I had been long, but got stopped out for a 7 cent loss vs.  a 30 cent loss. 

So.. I am selling rallies here in Jan beans.  In front of next Friday’s USDA report, I look for beans to head south again.  In Jan the recent low was 12.64.  We are […]

Trend line in Jan Beans to Sell: Good Exports don't trade higher on good exports

Posted on by Chris Robinson

1) funds are still long 70K estimated beans.  short 220K estimated corn.

Why when we get good exports did we see beans only rally a nickel.?  SX made it back to the 13.00 print. What a gift.  Just Tuesday we were down at 12.68, sweating out the longs who took beans after expiration.   I had been long, but got stopped out for a 7 cent loss vs.  a 30 cent loss. 

So.. I am selling rallies here in Jan beans.  In front of next Friday’s USDA report, I look for beans to head south again.  In Jan the recent low was 12.64.  We are […]

© Copyright 2024 Robinson Trading LLC. All rights reserved.
  • Connect on LinkedIn
  • Add on Facebook
  • Follow on Twitter