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Beans look to pull up the rest of the grains , in spite of a large 1.533 billion bushel carry in Corn from 2012.  The USDA numbers were   amazingly close to trade expectations.  For the Beans; carry out is a paltry  150 Million bushels  15 below the average trade guess.

As for corn it looks like USDA took usage out of corn.  corn carry over advanced from the last crop report. They took out more demand rather than reduce the crop.

The wheat carry over increased.  World wheat stock increased 3mmt. Corn stocks world wide advanced.  World wide soybean stocks were up 9 million tonnes globally […]

December Dow Futures have now rallied 533 point in three days.  From last Friday’s low at 14,692 up to today’s high at 15,222.  At this point, I’ve been stopped out of all short specs with buy stops.

Dec Dow looks bound and determined to run up to the 15,500 level we failed at before. This seems like more of an emotional trade than any thing.  I also believe there are enough “what if’s ” on the horizon to look for trades to catch the correction.

Of course, we are going to be heading into October in another 2 weeks.  That historically has been a dicey […]

Dow comes 1/2 way back.  Open the champagne?  Or sell it with both hands?    I would be interested in selling at 15,190 to 15200.   All is well today, apparently, with the Syrian’s decision to let Putin rule the day, by giving them control of their chemical weapons.   If you believe that its all wrapped up in a nice package and its done,  I would dis agree.  I’d be a scale in buyer of puts and seller of futures.
As I drove in this AM, listening to the radio up and down the dial,  both conservative, and liberal commentators seemed in agreement that the worse threat […]

If we get a 13.84 print in SX, I’d be a seller.  We traded down to 13.34 today and still have a gap below at 31 to fill.  Eventually, I believe that gap will be tested.  Given the volatile trade in beans and the fact that we are having 50 cent swings  ($2500) per contract gains and losses,  trading beans is not for the faint hearted.   It is imperative that you use protective stops.today’s high at 13.68 was 30 cents from that low.  I think there might be one more 25 cent push to squeeze out those who sold it in the hole this morning.  […]

At least 3 well followed analysts are bullish beans in the wake of  not enough rain over the long weekend.  That alone gives me pause.  Secondly,  we were 50 cents higher last night and we couldn’t take out the Sep 12, 2012 high  again at 09 3/4?   We couldn’t do it last week and then promptly sold off.  Today’s high is 08 1/2….    Based on that action and the fact that 1) the funds are still long 100K contracts 2) advisory services are net bullish beans and 3) we have not had a huge uptick in exports yet,  just makes me wonder if this is […]

With weather issues impacting grains and world wide events impacting gold and oil,  it might be the best strategy to get flat and then look at opportunity next week.  We have the Labor Day holiday Monday. A lot of folks are working today and then heading out for a 4 day weekend.

That is my first inclination.  There is too much uncertainty to be putting fresh positions on prior to the long weekend.

For the Sep Dec Corn spread sold at 27,   we covered those at 18 and 17 and were happy to take that profit. 
For the short futures position in CZ from […]