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On July 9th, I suggested selling that rally in CZ up to 5.30 and I had resting orders to sell August Beans at 15.10 if it ever popped up there.

If you have been following along, we actually have been short since the 5.65-5.70 level in CZ. We took heat, got stopped out on a weekly basis. Fortunately, we re loaded on the way down.

Today CZ is at 4.83
I have 4.70 to 4.60 as the next level.
Today August beans are at 14.84.  15.25 was the high in August.   Cover shorts at 14.51 and 14.36.

Take profits or roll down buy stop locking […]

Rain was less than desired in Iowa, but about 40% of the WCB and ECB got 1/2 inch to an inch.
Its a mixed bag, but we are on our lows. 
Funds lightened their short position as of last Friday in both corn and wheat.  I like owning corn puts and owning wheat calls,  looking for that spread to pop higher for at least 30 to 40 cents.

Today we trade weather again in the corn.  Looking at AG web posts,  it looks like if you post anything bearish about corn, you’ll be on a hit list.  Group think has a poor track record […]

Barring 2 consecutive settlements above 15,500 in Sep Dow Futures, I’d remain short.
The cash Dow posted a record high yesterday, on the 18th at 15,589.

If you have followed me for any length of time, you know I like to fade popular opinion.  I have to think this weekend all of the Talking Heads across the media blitz field, will be talking about the new record highs in the Dow.

Will any one notice that we have rallied 9000 pts from the 2009 lows?  This morning when I drove to work, I listened to the same add 3 times on AM radio. The company […]

1) Make sure you have buy stops controlling risk on the Sep Dow short position if you have futures in place.
2) Make sure you have buy stops in the August bean position if you have futures in place.

If you want to remain bearish, but limit your risk,  look a the following puts:.
Buy an August 1300 put for 24 cents. That’s $1200 bucks with unlimited profit potential.

In the Dow,  consider at 1500 put for 153.

We’ll watch how these options play out over the next 2 months.

Regards,

CER

A settlement above resistance at 14.79 would get me out of my shorts.  We’d be taking a 15 cent loss from our sale average at 63. I started selling it at 55 and sold last at 70.  Downside profit objective would be a cover at 14.25.  Trying to make 40. Risking 15.  That’s 4:1 risk reward  I look for.

Today should be interesting.  Crop conditions dropped by just  2 percent. However, funds are long beans and short corn.
They will push their winner long in the beans,  and may have to flip out of their net short corn position.  CZ  could very easily rally back […]

A settlement above resistance at 14.79 would get me out of my shorts.  We’d be taking a 15 cent loss from our sale average at 63. I started selling it at 55 and sold last at 70.  Downside profit objective would be a cover at 14.25.  Trying to make 40. Risking 15.  That’s 4:1 risk reward  I look for.

Today should be interesting.  Crop conditions dropped by just  2 percent. However, funds are long beans and short corn.
They will push their winner long in the beans,  and may have to flip out of their net short corn position.  CZ  could very easily rally back […]