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The CZ short position is paying off.
CZ traded back down to the 5.11 low.  Remember 5.71?  Remember the 10,000 July dated 5.50 puts that went off worthless last week?
This market is looking orchestrated by the funds.
The USDA has increased acres of planted corn. up to 97.4 Million acres.  Up from last year.

All the talk about delayed plantings,  3 million to 11 million acres lost…. seems like just another bullish opinion.

We’ll see if we can settle below 5.11.  If we get favorable weather, I don’t see why we dont’ see 4.50 corn.

Adios corn.  Adios wheat.  See what transpires but right […]

On the short position in gold,  cover another 1/3 of short positions here.  Lower stops on the remaining 1/3 of positions.
On a mini gold contract at 30 bucks a tick we’ve taken $2250 on each short contract at this point.

Tomorrow before the USDA, if you are a client call in.
I have 3 spec trades I like in the grains.

CER

September Dow futures trading at 14,500  which is a 2-month low.  I’d not really get friendly or bullish the Dow until we get to 14,313. So for now maintain shorts and sell rallies.
That is all.
CER

Later today, i’ll cover Gold , and the grain complex.

We were very over due for a correction in the stock Indexes.  In the Dow, yesterday’s low of  14,729 was not completely un expected.   We took out the old June 6th low by just 100 pts.
If you go back, I suggested buying that break as well.

I’d be buying breaks, but with very tight sell stops.

We might end up w/ a flush back to 14,400, however, I would definitely take advantage of that break and re-own.

For the bears: The rececent high at 15,523 on May 22nd capped off a little bit of a rally in Dow Futures.

Since 11/15—–3,181 pts

Since 12/28—-2,821  pts

[…]

CZ trading at 5.60,  US dollar going sharply higher and its going to put pressure on commodities.
Take profits on Short from 5.68 and move stops down.  I still want to play CZ from the short side unless we settle above 5.75 two days in a row.

The short position in August Gold turned into a gift. I had put it on when August was trading at 1375, I had thought we would trade down to 1350 or 1340.  I did cover half my stuff between 1350 and 1340.   Luckily we got  a kicker down to 1285 for a bonus on the other half.  […]

If this is a bearish response to Bernanke,  I’d hate to see a bullish one.
We had an intial sell off in the stocks in response to Mr. Bernanke talking today.

As of this writing (2:12PM CST) we are down just 140 pts.  Back in 1998 through 2002 we’d have 300 pt trading ranges regularly.. so I can’t really get upset by one that’s less than 200 today.  And we had 300 pt ranges w/ the average at 10000.   The average is at 15,000 so the percentage swing of a 200pt range is even smaller.
Don’t tell that to the Financial Reporters out there though..It […]

If this is a bearish response to Bernanke,  I’d hate to see a bullish one.
We had an intial sell off in the stocks in response to Mr. Bernanke talking today.

As of this writing (2:12PM CST) we are down just 140 pts.  Back in 1998 through 2002 we’d have 300 pt trading ranges regularly.. so I can’t really get upset by one that’s less than 200 today.  And we had 300 pt ranges w/ the average at 10000.   The average is at 15,000 so the percentage swing of a 200pt range is even smaller.
Don’t tell that to the Financial Reporters out there though..It […]

The 3 year Weekly Trend line is back in play.  Sell CZ at 5.68.  Cover after 2 consecutive settlements above 5.76.
That is all.
CER

A short term play would be to sell August Gold here at 1375 with a downside target of 13.50.
Puts a buy stop above today’s high at 1385.

For the Dow June,  take profits on 1/3 of remaining long position here at 15,250 level.  I still think we can see 15,500 or higher, but take profits now to ring cash register.

November Beans look to possibly test 12.75.  I’d be a scale in buyer between here and 12.60.  12.60 would be a level to own.  Risk 15 cents. 

Those are 3 trades I am looking at today.
CER

We have a trend line on the daily charts for CZ with 4 hits.
We really have to settle above 5.50 to get bullish.  I’d be selling this rally.
That’s about it.

I have maintained longs in the Dow we bought 8 trading days  ago.  I still think 15,400 is the next upside target.  However,  make sure you have sell stops to protect profits.

November New Crop Beans  did not like falling below 13.00.  Round numbers are always good plays.  Half the crowd gets bulled up,  half the crowd gets bear ed up.   The move through that round number is generally goosed by the wrong […]