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The Bull camp once again took it on the chin.
If you have been short CZ w/ me since last Friday, cover another 1/3 of your shorts here.
USDA lowered the carryout slightly.  There will continue to be bullish camp saying gov is wrong.
For now, I’m keeping it simple and resepecting that 3 year old trend line on the weekly chart in CZ13.

We did get stopped out on the original idea.  However,  I put it back on last Friday. 
Maintain the shorts.  Lower your stops.  Let it breathe.

1.9 Billion bushel carryout. No major change

Our share of exports has dropped.  Exports […]

I sold CZ on the close Friday.  CZ at 5.57.  Today’s low was 5.40. I covered 1/3 this morning at 47.  I covered the other 1/3 on the close here at 5.44.  I am holding the other 1/3 tonight.  Planting progress came in within expectations.  The 6-10 day forecast looks friendly with non-threatening weather.

I continue  to hear from farmers in Southern Il and western Iowa who are too wet, and therefore very bullish.
I continually remind them that we plant corn nation wide.  Don’t get caught up in marketing based on the view from your kitchen window.

The gold trade:  I’d still want to […]

Its 3:3r CST.  June Futures for Dow posted a high so far at 15,249.  You should still be long 2/3 of your position after taking profits on the 1/3.

As for June gold,  it is 35 bucks lower and seems to have turned its nose up at the 1400 level.  1377 is today’s low, but given the rally in stocks and the failure to hold 1400 as we end the week,  this can’t be characterized as bullish chart action for gold.  This is a 3 week low settlement,  and a bearish hook reversal on the weekly chart for gold.  1400 will continue to be a […]

I had suggested buying a break down to 14830.  The low tick yesterday was 14,835.  Currently trading at 15,186.    351 points from bottom to top.
If you follow my letter, you know I am a big believer in scale in buying as it approaches a technical target.  I scaled in 2 lots between 14870 and 14850    the lowest tick i bought was at 14850. 

Now, after a 300 pt rally, take profits on 1/3.  Its trading at 15,200.   Then move your stop up on the other 2/3.  The upside target is 15,298.   Scale in your sales from 15,240 on up.
Have a good weekend.

Buy a break in June Down at 14830.
This is a good support level the March lows at 14400.  Don’t forget your stop order though.  Friday’s unemployment info looks to have possibly leaked, or perhaps its just long’s taking profits before that number.

A break back to 14,400 would be  good place to get long as well.

The puts I had in place for the past 6 weeks are looking better and better.

That’s all for tonight.

CER

Currently have orders working to Sell June gold at 1427 with a buy stop at 42.  500 dollar risk. Looking for a break down to the recent lows for a by at 1377.

Also, here it looks like the settlement above 65 last Friday might have been a trap.
Although I I got stopped out last week, I still want to be short against a settlement this week below 67.

Stranger things have happened. 

As for new crop beans, SX has just rallied $1.20 in 14 trading days. Time for a breather. Sell SX on a limit at 13.55 with a down side […]

Its always best to keep your bet size small.  Every trade had the risk of becoming a loser.  Successful long term trading campaigns need on thing above all else. Disciplined loss taking.  IF you can train yourself to take losses in a disciplined manner, you have the foundation for successful long term trading.
Experienced traders as well as rookies are all subject to the same emotional foibles.  Greed, Fear, Envy, Ego, Second Guessing,  Wishing, Hoping, Praying.
If you find yourself wishing, hoping and praying when you are trading one thing is for sure.  You are trading too big.
If you are emotionally attached to the […]

Ok,  CZ13 settled above the 3 yr old Trend line.  In 2 weeks, CZ rallied 61 cents.  This is why we use stops.   The CZ chart has moved back from Bearish, to Neutral in the short term (1-3 week)  Intermediate term ( 1 to 3 months)  CZ is still in the hands of the bears.  A settlement above 5.88 would be necessary to shift the intermediate term back to neutral.  That is the 1/2 way point of the life of contract extremes. Sept 12 th high 6.65 down to the recent low at 5.12.
Loss taken.  Fortunately, the first 1/3 of the shorts had small […]

Corn is 86 % planted vs. 99 last year.  We are 4% off average of 90 % for this time of year.  Last year’s 99% was more of an outlier.
Bottom line: I don’t see how this is bullish.  4% behind average planting rate? Seriously?

One interesting thing a marketer that every one follows today lifted his short futures positions.  That should go a long way towards easing higher prices.

CZ13 did fill the gap at 52 1/2.  However, we did not settle above it.   I have 5.64, then 5.75 then 5.88 as upsides, if they really get after it on the bull side.  We […]

Recap of positions:  Short CZ at 5.36 with a stop if we settle above 52 1/2.
Short SN at 14.98 entered today on a stop.   I won’t cover that for a while, however I moved buy stop down to 14.88.
The Dow, I remain friendly. This break to 15200 in the YMM looks like a natural pause in the rally.  I think a settlement above 15.500 opens door to 16,000 print.
Its a creeping, grinding rally.  Since November 16,  over the past 6 months, we have picked up 3,000 points. 
For a downside play, I’d have cheap 14000 puts on or 13,500 puts on to […]