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Corn: May corn settled up 4 ½ cents at $3.78 ½ which is the highest settlement in 4-months. For the week, CK gained 16 ¼ cents. New crop CZ settled at $3.88 ¼ which was only a 3 week high settlement. For the week, CZ gained just 2 ¾ cents. The funds came for it this week, driving May higher. However, New Crop CZ continued to be un-able to breach the $3.90 level, failing there for the 9th time in the last 2 months. Word of a sale of 344K MT to “unknown” was supportive. Also supportive was rumors that China will delay its old […]

Thursday 4/7/25

Grains:

Post USDA on the 3/31, we have had a nice rally back in CK, despite a very bearish USDA planting number which estimated 93.6 million acres will be planted by US farmers this spring.
That report capped off a 27 cent down-draft and new contract and multi-year low for corn.

Two things I’d watch:
1) The managed funds are still short 150K contracts of corn. A 15 cent rally in CK from the low over the past 8 trading days has yet to spark major short covering by managed funds.
2) Technicals: The favorite of many traders and analyst, […]

7 Days ago, the wheat market popped higher,  in fact, from the low to Monday’s 6-week high, the contract rallied 37 cents. Today we’ve had a sharp sell off, after trying to rally higher.

The funds look to have added to shorts in wheat. The 8-month T-line, shown below in WK and WN,  illustrates how these longer dated t-lines can come into play.  If we were to settle below that T-line for the week,  both bears and recent longs would have to re-evaluate their positions.

This chart shows how the market tends to “rally up the staircase”, but corrects by “falling down the elevator shaft”. […]

New Crop SX bounces 3-1/2 month high . Shows The importance of the 50, 100 and 200 day averages— Funds run on the move above the 200 day average capped off by a new 5 month low in the US Dollar.