Today’s rally is one to sell. Sell SX 12.90 to 13.00. The high at 13.07 took out the 50% RT by 3 cents.
Its over done, and everyone who is buying this looking for a continuation is going to be selling it to us back down at 12.55.
Stay away from SH b/c its in a delivery month. Last thing you want is to catch beans or get a delivery notice.
Trade May for old crop. Or stay in SX and fade the rally.
Also, foot note. sell CX now if we take out 5.52
That is all.
CER
Corn: CH closed up 5 ¼ cents at $7.00 ½. CZ settled up 3-3/4 cents at $5.61 ½. Funds sold just 2,000 contracts. Today was a quiet news day for corn, with most of the overnight trade focused on more rumored sales of beans and wheat to China. Traders will have an eye on Thursday and Friday’s Ag Outlook Forum from the USDA from Washington D.C. The trade is expecting a bearish tone from that meeting. We are also just 5 weeks away from the March 28th USDA […]
Mark will be giving his 2 hour seminar in the following cities: February 21st Denver, CO; February 22nd Tupelo, MS; February 23rd Bloomington, IL. Call the office for details if you’d like to attend.
Corn: CH settled 4 cents higher at $6.98 ¾ cents. This was the first time in 11 days CZ had a higher settlement. Corn has never settled lower 11 consecutive days in CBOT history since 1965. For now that record remains in place. CZ settled down ¾ at $5.63. For the week CH settled 10 ¼ cents, while new crop CZ gained ¼ cent. A quiet Friday trade heading into the […]
Corn: March corn settled down 11 ¾ cents at 7.10 ¾ which is the lowest settlement in one month. New crop CZ fell 11 cents to a 7-month low and low settlement at $5.66 ½. If you’re keeping track, CH has dropped 36 cents since Feb 1st, while CZ has dropped 31 cents. CZ’s low today at 5.65 ¼ is almost EXACTLY $1.00 off the contract high at $6.65. This represents a 15% loss in value over 5-months. Tomorrow we will get February world crop production and U.S. and […]
Cattle Inventory numbers were released this afternoon from the USDA. Here are the official estimates.
All cattle and calves are estimated at 98%.
Calf crop at 97%.
Beef cows that have calved at 98%.
Beef replacement heifers at 102%.
Calves under 500 pounds at 98%.
Most numbers came out on the friendly side as expected. The real only stand was the replacement heifers for calving which was 4% higher than anticipated. This may be the signal that producers are holding back young females to rebuild […]
Gold has rallied today 17 bucks. The buy looks better and better. The options have picked up as well.
I sold 1/3 of the position this morning. when June printed 1680. The high so far has been 1686.
I am holding the cattle longs. Friday we have another big report. If its supportive, we should get paid Monday morning. If its not, we can skate away w/ a push or a small loss.
Weather issues today have SH beans approaching 15.00. The first time we get there I am going to sell it. If you are not long, I’d get long now with a tight sell stop […]
So far, support has held in June gold. We have a small profit. Adjust stops so that if we take out Monday’s low at 1656, you bail on the longs. Upside target is 1678 to 1682. If they really get after it, we could test 1700 once again.
The cattle long is working. Monday we gapped higher on the charts. A second day of settlement in March Feeders will make me feel more comfortable with the move. Fundamentally, that cattle on feed report Friday could not have been any friendlier to the bulls. We just don’t have the cattle out there.
CER
The low in June Gold was 1659.10. Stops are still in place. Longs are still in effect.
AS for the long feeder cattle position: Cattle on feed was released to day at 2PM. Bullish, Placements were 99% vs expectations of 104.
On Feed: 93% vs 98% expected.
This is the first time in 8 reports we have been further than 5% away from expectations.
These figures are bullish. Support Tightness.
Prices should rally.
Have I seen a report which is faded? Yes. However, I don’t see anyone fading this report b/c of the size of the discrepancy between reality and what had been anticipated.
The Dow […]
Today’s low 1658. My support was 16.60. I have scaled in longs here.
IMPORTANT: place your protective sell stops below to guarantee a worse case loss of no more than 5 $.
a trade below 1654 1/2 should be your safety parachute level.
Keep the the 5:1 risk reward or higher. Risk one unit to make 5: in this case, we’re risking 5 bucks to make 30.
CER
For a speculative trade: Buy Jan Gold (GCF13) between 1668 and 1660. Scale in buy at that level. Upside target 1695.
We put in a 5 month low on January 4th at 1626. We had a nice 75.00 rally and peaked at 1697. No surprise we didnt get the actual 1700 print.
I like buying this break. Keep your sell stops reasonable. Risk 5 dollars. Upside target is 30 bucks away. That’s a 5:1 risk reward.
If you don’t buy futures, buy march 1700 calls for 11.00. That’s 32 days of upside particicpation for $1100.00 risk.