13,118 then 13,000 look like low risk buys

While we never got to 13,600 again, if you’ve been following along, I’ve been suggesting selling rallies, with tight buy stops.  That being said,  we traded down to 13,126,  which is just 6 ticks away from an old chart low at 13,118. 
I’d be looking to cover any existing shorts, and look for a bounce on an over sold, emotional move.

We’ve gotten some iffy earning reports,  we are heading 13 days in front of the election.
I just don’t see any major moves, higher or lower between then.. 

I’d definitely be a buyer at the 13,000 level on the initial flush down.

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Dow never jumped up to sell target

Yesterday’s high in the DJZ was 13,530.Today’s low is 200pts lower.  Sadly, i havd 13,550 and 13600 as resting sell orders.  They never got hit. 
It is interesting that 13,450 to 13,600—– a narrow 150 pt range, has been the Maginot line since September 11th. 
This is starting to look like the Dow wants to roll over here.
I’d sell into rallies, all the time with my eyes at the 13,600 level as the price level to pull the rip cord on the parachute.

I am not sure what the next 3 weeks have in mind, but I’d be very suspect of […]

Whipsawed in the Grains/ Look to Sell DJZ at 13,600

That sound you are hearing is a whipsaw.  Kind of like putting your left hand into a blender.
Fortunately, I always have stops in place and I always use options so that from day one I know my exit strategy.

There are 6 trading days left on the Nov options.  I am going to hang on to them because they are not worth exiting.  Monday we may come in set up for a sell off,  but I honestly doubt it. Grains were set up for a sell off, and they have rejected that down move.  Facts are facts.

The Dow shorts have all been exited.  […]

Dow halts the sell-off— for today and the grains hit a pot hole

On October 8th ,  I looked at being short around the 13,500-13650 level with a down side target at 13,200,  with a possible flush down to 13,118.
Today we went to 13,208, just one tick below the November 12th low at 13,209. We have since had a nice short covering rally up to 13,362.  If you had had access to my real time updates, as opposed to these once daily blogs,  you would have taken another 1/3 of your shorts off on the bounce above 13,239. That is where my buy stops had been lowered.

We just may have posted the low for the next […]

Grains Leaking post report

Yesterday’s close was not very impressive in the grains, given the fundamentals of the number.  Other than the initial push up in corn to try to move up 40 cents, the beans looked suspect.  Today we have corn down 10, wheat down 20 and beans down 20. That’s 500 a contract, and 1K a contract respectively, if you were short futures.

If SX futures fail at 15.00,  we’ll see a flush down.  I’d look to sell it here on a spec for the next week.  You’d have to risk 25 cents though, or about $1,500 a futures contract.  

Its still early Friday,  currently 9:41 […]

Post 2PM 10/11/12

Beans did not settle that well considering the initial rally up.  Corn couldn’t take out limit. This is making me believe we could have a replay of the last USDA, where traders got bulled up after the number, but the market did not deliver w/ follow through.
You have to remember this is a future’s market,  not a yesterday or today market.

I would  continue look at places to buy cheap puts as insurance and or/ specs.

One final word, looking at the Gold,  we are just about 30 bucks below that 1800 level which we approached but failed to reach.
I’d be short here […]

USDA Bullish BC of Exports

First Blush, numbers were not that bullish.  They raised the yield. They also raised exports.
Corn up 24,  Beans up 20 but had been up as much as 35.  Wheat is up just 8 cents after being up 20 early.

Looks like another light volume trade.  One thing to note,  beans rallied and corn rallied about 2 minutes before the 730 AM number was released.  More than just a few pros think this looked like some sort of a leak, or just a very luck guess.

Adjust buy stops in the short Dow position.  the low today so far as been 13,227., within 100 pts […]

Where is the Volume? Where is the interest level?

We have had a drastic decrease in volume and open interest in a lot of commodities across the board. Cattle is a classic example,  and I look at  a contract like cattle like the canary in the coal mine. Its not widely followed by anyone outside of the investment community.  Volume is down.  Open interest is down over 150K contracts compared to where we were last year.
The question is why?
I would guess its a combination of 4 things.  1) the continuing repercussion of the failure of MF Global and the looting there of customer segregated funds. 2) The collapse of PFG, once again, the […]

A lot of Bears in the News: China Boosts Liquidity

The past two days have been interesting.  Two major daily papers had headlines touting increased risk of world wide economies slipping back into recession. This morning, Oct 9th,  we had Chinese banks increase liquidity. This was friendly for crude oil as we saw a $3.00 bounce today, December crud futures appear to have caught support at the 88.50 level. If you follow along, I was looking for a break down to 87. or even 86, so sadly I am not long any crude to speak of.  I may, however, look to buy some 102 or 104 calls on a spec.  I wanted to wait, actually, […]

13,600 holds as Dow Futures Resistance: Beans pull back

Friday’s high in Dec Dow was 13,599.  Today’s holiday low has been 13,475. 
No change in my opinion. I think you have to be short here, with protective buy stops.
If you are bullish,  I’d be flat, but looking to get long on a move above 13,650 with a buy stop with an upside target of 14,000.
I am selling this level looking for a pullback down below 13,200.  I am willing to risk a little here to put this position in place.  Just be disciplined.

As for the beans, we had a pullback.  the options which were worth 20 cents  on Friday are […]