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I have known Rick Santelli for about 15 years.  He’s a smart guy.  Interesting that he had predicted an unemployment number today at 7.9… The number came in at 7.8.
Anyone over 30 with a pulse knows the much bandied about stat that “no sitting president has ever been re-elected with unemployment higher than 8%”.

Are your really surprised?  I am an independent.  Not particularly political person.  I don’t really like the extremes on either side.  I think life is too complicated to have simplistic black and white views.

That being said, I think bureaucrats are good at creating layers of bureaucracy. That generally makes […]

I have known Rick Santelli for about 15 years.  He’s a smart guy.  Interesting that he had predicted an unemployment number today at 7.9… The number came in at 7.8.
Anyone over 30 with a pulse knows the much bandied about stat that “no sitting president has ever been re-elected with unemployment higher than 8%”.

Are your really surprised?  I am an independent.  Not particularly political person.  I don’t really like the extremes on either side.  I think life is too complicated to have simplistic black and white views.

That being said, I think bureaucrats are good at creating layers of bureaucracy. That generally makes […]

Beans up close to 1666.  Corn up close to 7.70 in CZ
Manage winners.  the SX 1620 calls are trading near 20 cents. Most were bought for 13 to 14 cents.  Look at selling 1/2 of the position if SX trades to 16.00

Gold is within 7 bucks of the 1800 level. I still like taking profits at 1799. You Don’t want to lose 10 bucks on a flush trying to get filled at 1800.

Its 9:17 AM.  

Once again, the Dow futures are flirting with 13,515.. I think Romney’s performance buoyed belief that if he wins, there will be a much better […]

Today I like buying SX on the fact that $15.18 1/2 back held after a test of $15.04.  SX rallied up to $15.43 today.  I like buying futures or spending 13 to 15 cents a bushel on SX $16.20 calls.
I also like buying some CZ 7.70 calls in the corn. 

We are one week away from the USDA crop producition  report on Oct 11.  Beans had a 2.60 cent break in 14 trading days.
CZ held tough the whole time, as did the wheat.
Bottom line, this is the break I think we have been waiting for.

One more item. Gold i s […]

December Dow futures currently at 13,370.  Assuming you sold futures around 13,500, certainly not the stone cold high at 13,526…  you are looking at a profit of 100 to 130 pts a contract. That’s $1,300.00 paper.
I like covering 1/3 here.  Moving buy stops down on the other 2/3 and just forgetting this market.  I’d have oco orders on the buy stops with limit buys at 13,301 and then 13,250.
That’s a bout it for Stock indexes for now.  It’s 11.08AM CST.

Take profits. 
CER

Update:  All my shorts are gone this morning.  We had a 288 pt break over the last 6 trading sessions.
While I certainly didn’t sell the top or buy the low, we took the meat out of the position.
My basic idea on the stocks has not changed.  Sell these high levels,  but be ready to head for the exits post haste.
Dec Dow future have tested 13,500 10 times in the last 13 trading days.  13,576, 13, 588 equate to me to 13,600.

I ‘d once again be scaling in shorts here.  One caveat, Its the first of the month ,  first day […]

Going into the weekend,  you should still be short Dow futures and long gold or long gold calls.

Take profits if you can,  but by all means, if you are riding these winners,  move up your respective stops.

Lower the buy stops on the Dow and raise your sell stop on the Dow.

In the grains,  Bullish Corn number with 928 carry out vs. 1.1 B expected.   bearish bean number with 169 carry vs. 132 expected..

Corn has had a 45 cent trading range and did spike up to 750.   Currently trading 744. If you’re resting sell orders were filled, then I would take the 6 cent […]

Back on Sept 10th, I wrote that I was advising getting long gold, even if  a reluctant long.  When we popped above $1700.00 an ounce, it triggered a buy.  Today we came withing 20 bucks of the target at $1800.00
Take profits on 1/3 of positions.  Move stops up on the rest.  Sell the next 1/3 at 1799.00. When those sales get filled, then move your trailing stop up on the final 1/3.
That is all I have to say about Gold.

Tomorrow is a USDA stock grain report.  I’d sit on my hands for the first half our of trade. Barring that,  consider having […]

Food for thought for fundamental traders out there.  Logic suggests that QE3 should have been friendly for commodities in general.  However, Corn and Beans have done nothing but drift lower. Corn spiked higher but is now down 60 cents a bushel, or 3K dollars a contract.
Soybeans spiked on the 13th as well.  As of today’s action it has dropped  $2.20  or $10,100 dollars a contract.
Wheat has held up but is stuck more in a trading range.  If we have continued pressure,  it will soon follow suit.
Just food for thought.  After being beat up on every rally,  the bears are finally starting […]

Food for thought for fundamental traders out there.  Logic suggests that QE3 should have been friendly for commodities in general.  However, Corn and Beans have done nothing but drift lower. Corn spiked higher but is now down 60 cents a bushel, or 3K dollars a contract.
Soybeans spiked on the 13th as well.  As of today’s action it has dropped  $2.20  or $10,100 dollars a contract.
Wheat has held up but is stuck more in a trading range.  If we have continued pressure,  it will soon follow suit.
Just food for thought.  After being beat up on every rally,  the bears are finally starting […]