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Dow futures tested the 13,300 level 2 days ago in anticipation of easing or dovish comments from the fed.  I am not calling this a top, but, if you have been following me,  you know I look for counter trend trades to take lower risk profits.  Today we have an opportunity to protect profits on short positions be they futures or options based bets. Move protective stops on you futures to ensure that at worst case you have a break even.  Take profits on 1/3 of the futures at or near the 13,025 level.

As for the Beans and Corn,  It looks like we are […]

Its 11AM in Chicago.  Corn down 8 but it had been down 23 earlier.  Wheat down 13 but it had been down 23 as well.  Beans down 33,  after being down 40 earlier.
May get  a rally to sell here today.  Nothing has changed from Friday’s USDA.  I’d still be looking to sell rallies and buy dips.  Technically, CZ put in a key reversal Friday.  All this means is that it spiked to a new all time high,  then collapsed, suggesting a blow off top.  Every doctor,  dentist and cab driver  who bought the end of the rally in the past  2 weeks are now looking for […]

Corn yield was lowered to 123 bushels to a 10.7 Billion Corn crop.  Bean yield 36,  2.6 billion bushel crop.

Bullish number.  We had a 30 cent spike and break in corn.  If the carry out gets smaller, beans show possibility of going higher,  I just don’t know how much higher.  We are past the supply part of the rally.
Now we head into the demand part of the equation.  Higher price equals less demand. 

I’d continue to be short, either with puts,  or with buy stops to limit potential losses.  CZ traded up to 8.49.  could not get the 8.50 put.  CZ13, traded up […]

SX is down 43 cents as I write this at 9:44.  Overnight we were as much as 50 cents lower. 50 Cents is $2500 a contract.  If you took my advice and went home short Friday, then I’d reward yourself with taking profits.
If you faded me and went home long, hopefully you had sell stops to protect you.  If you didn’t then maybe you finally learned an expensive lesson.
Between Monday and Thursday, if we continue to get lower temps and good rains, that will pressure beans and should move corn and wheat lower in sympathy.
I’d be short looking to take profits on […]

Expectations were for 100K new non-farm payrolls jobs.  We got 163K   a nice surprise.  Looks like people were betting on a bearish number, so you had a spike in the Dow. 
High in futures still just 13080.  low 12,813 for a 200 point trading range,   currently up 222 pts.
In my opinion, I’d be a seller between 13,100 and 13,200  because its the top of the resistance of the trading rang.  Combine that with the ecstasy coming through from the financial media and I think this is a low risk trade.
Its getting late in the day for grains.  Buy a CZ 7.50 put […]

Today’ s high in the Dow markes a 600 point rally from Tuesday’s low at 12,462. As of this writing the high tick has been 13,061.  The next upside resistance for Dow futures looks to be the May 2nd high up at 13,204.  One caveat for those of you who like to buy on strength..   After that high on May 2nd,  Dow futures fell 1,329 points over the a one month period,  capped off with the low at 11,885 on June 4th.

Bottom line,  its hard to get too excited about this rally.  I think a lot of folks were caught short for this month, […]

Today is July 26, 2012.  We have December corn flirting once again with the $8.00 resistance level.  Tomorrow is the last Friday of the month, and historically,  markets like to make highs on those calender events.
Since June 15th,  December new crop 2012 corn has rallied $2.94 from its low tick at $5.06.  Since June 1st, SX12 beans rallied $4.46 cents between the low at $12.45 up to last Friday/ this Monday’s high at $16.91.  Between Monday’s high and yesterday’s low at  $15.36.  That was a $1.55 correction in 72 hours.
Just an example of how fast it drops when the party is over.
Now […]

Yesterday’s action on the charts for beans is technically a key reversal.  This is a formation which can signal major changes in the trend. Generally viewed as negative for the  bulls.  One caveat,  we had one of these $2.00 ago in the beans, so like every thing else in life it doesn’t always work.  What it does do is give you confidence to make a decision, place your stops, and let the price action play itself out.
Look for a $2.00 break in Beans and a $1.00 to $1.50 break in corn.  Those breaks will be opportunities to get long looking for a rally higher.

In response to a comment which was sent to  me via an “anonymous” individual.
I invite you to email me directly at christianrobinson1@gmail.com  

The nature of your comment shows how woefully mis informed you are concerning specific  items of history which I would be more than happy to share with you.   Email me directly.  I have a good idea who you are, even though you didn’t have the guts to sign your name.

Of course, the fact that you left your comment without signing it,  just indicates to me that you are still the  likely the bitter, functioning alchoholic I remember from the 80’s and 90’s. I […]

Both Beans and Corn finally broke out above their trading ranges 2 weeks ago in a powerful bull move.  I have been too busy, quite honestly,  with the rally to write any thing worth while.
Today is Friday July6th.  We have had a 2.07 cent rally in CZ corn in 14 days, with some profit taking here going into the weekend.  I had bought some 11 cent calls 3 weeks ago, and most of them I got out of with a double or a triple.  One of my clients held them and sold them today for 1.30 after buying them for 12 cents.  This is a […]