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12,543 is the mid=point of the year long,  1,331 trading point range we have see.   May 5th we were at the Top and Goldman Sachs released a report saying that Stocks were a “buy of the century”:
June 4th we traded to the low of 11,884.
It’s June 22nd, and for all intents and purposes we start getting into Summer Vacation Mode where a lot of traders and money managers pull their horns in one way or another and look for only massive moves of 2 or 3 standard deviations away from an average move before they get involved.
That makes for thin markets and […]

Dow futures rallied overnight on the Greek Elections.  At one point trading up to the May highs at 12,800.
On May 9th 10th and 11th,  Dow futures printed 12,800 and failed all three times.  Subsequently, we broke down to 11,886,  Call that a 900 point break to our low on June 4th.

Now we have rallied back 62% of that break down.  with the trade at 12,706.  That was a key Fibonacci retracement. 

Last night we got the final bullish news that the Greeks voted to stay in the EU with their  elections.   We got a 100 point spike, and low and behold,  we are […]

I took profits on 1/2 of my shorts at that 12,373 level in Dow futures. We are 140 higher from there now trading at 12,500.
My buy stops have not been triggered yet, but if they are triggered, then so be it. The trade overall is a money maker.
Corn looks terrible. Calls which were profitable are now a push.
Fundamentally, hot and dry seems to have no impact like it logically would.
Basis is 85 over,  and seems to  be doing the job the futures market once did..
Those august options have over a month to go.  I have to think they will […]

Just 5-days ago the Dow was at a six month low of 11,985. That nice fat round number at 12,000 held and then we had a 767 point rally, capped off by this morning’s high tick at 12,752.

We have a buy the rumor/sell the fact trade. Spain’s banks get 100MM plus in buyout protection, and then the market’s break.  Market’s exist to punish people for their “obvious” trades.  Spain’s banks getting bailed out should be positive, but the markets are future’s markets,  not yesterday’s or today’s markets.

12,600 was taken out, and we had 150 point bounce above that.  Depending on where your stops […]

Wednesday the August corn calls 580’s and 585’s we spent between 10 and 11 cents to buy.
Those are currently a double.
If you like sell 1/2 and ride half.  You’ll have a totally free trade w/ 60 cents upside potential.

That is All.
CER

I missed writing for a while. Was on vacation and just didn’t feel like adding anything.  If you look at my last call on the Dow,  I liked 12,100 as an area to cover our shorts at 12,500.  As usual, you never have enough on when you nail it correctly but in general a good move.  Profitable trade.
I am writing today to advise, if you are long from 12,100,  put a sell target in Dow futures at 12,576-584.  If we get the 12,600 print and continue higher,  then fine but take profits on your longs there.  Today’s trade at 12,500 was a 38% pull […]

70 cent trading ranges in corn and beans.  60 cents in Wheat.  
for the week, old crop corn lost 57 cents.  New crop lost 15 1/2.   Old crop beans lost 23 cents on the week, while new crop remained unchanged.   Wheat lost 15 cents on the week, even after rallying back 17 cents here today.
If anyone tells you they are catching all of these moves, they are lying.
This is all about 1) weather,  2) china and 3) the outside markets.
Wednesday saw a 4 month low in the Dow,  a 7 month low in crude oil  (crude dropped 21 dollars a barrel […]

After initially looking like a good level to buy in the Dow futures,  at 12650-12,550,  The market has continued to leak.  No news stories, continued worries about Europe,  the whole JP Morgan debacle, just took the steam off the stocks.  The biggest story has been Facebook, and as of this writing, if you bought today, you are already down money. Obviously, if you were an employee and had a bunch of paper handed to you today, you are still way, way ahead of the game..

Honestly,  I’d be short here, with a trailing buy stop above.  Once the 12,550 level did not hold,  I exited […]

The dow futures are at their support level which has held over the past 4-months.  Buy it and put a stop in.
Thats all for now.
CER

JP Morgan… This morning  announced they had a boo boo.  A bad trade.  Not a rogue trader,  but a bad trade.
They are talking 2 billion.. That to me means by the time the smoke clears it will be more like 6 to 8..
What does this mean?
Well, it could be the push to have the Stock market break below its recent trading range.  Possible to  have the Dow falter and go down below 12,600.  Possibly have the S&P drop to 1300..
Buy S&P 1300 puts for 1200 bucks.  That would hedge any long positions you have in stocks. One put should cover 125K […]