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Just yesterday I wrote that we might be in for a break Dow the 12650..We got down to 12,700.   Watching CNBC now,  after a 96 point bounce back from 17000,  they are wiping their brows and fanning themselves.  Are you serious?  This passes for thoughtful analysis?  This is a break i caught with a short position.  I covered that short and bought out of the money calls at 13,000 just as a matter of principal.
If they are getting bearish after a correction in the stocks indexes, is probably a good time to start heading upstream against the herd.

Beans, Corn and Wheat settled […]

Much to the dismay of financial reporters who are watching their viewership drift away now that its past May first,  the stocks look to be range bound.  If you are looking for volatility, you are not going to find in in S&P’s or Dow futures.   12,650 to 13,200  equals a 550 point trading range..  That’s a 4% valuation drop or gain, depending on how the market is trading.   We may have a day or a week where we explore that entire trading range somewhere along the line. 
In the mean time,  I’d look at putting on a straddle or a strangle to take advantage […]

Dow futures can’t get above 13,200 or below 12,650. 600 point trading range looks like our lot for the foreseeable future.  I can’t really see any thing on the horizon which will move us.  More that likely it will be something coming unexpectedly out of Europe.

The old adage sell in may and go away may once again play out.  However,  I read a couple articles to that effect on the wire over the past week, so that is suggestive to me that we will stay more in a trading range rather than see an acceleration below 12,500.

The media will continue to have a field […]

Dow futures can’t get above 13,200 or below 12,650. 600 point trading range looks like our lot for the foreseeable future.  I can’t really see any thing on the horizon which will move us.  More that likely it will be something coming unexpectedly out of Europe.

The old adage sell in may and go away may once again play out.  However,  I read a couple articles to that effect on the wire over the past week, so that is suggestive to me that we will stay more in a trading range rather than see an acceleration below 12,500.

The media will continue to have a field […]

China’s GDP came in at 8.1, Analysts were looking for 8.5 or higher. End result? Dow currently down 105, S&P currently down 11 handles. Not a bad way to end the week. I hope you had a short position. It’s 1:30 pm and I am heading home for the weekend. Beans, Corn and Wheat all took it on the chin today. corn down 10, beans down 5, wheat down 16. Next week could be ugly for corn and wheat if technical levels are broken. The beans may be the last stalwart for the bulls unless we start getting talk of a real drought. Have a […]

China’s GDP came in at 8.1, Analysts were looking for 8.5 or higher. End result? Dow currently down 105, S&P currently down 11 handles. Not a bad way to end the week. I hope you had a short position. It’s 1:30 pm and I am heading home for the weekend. Beans, Corn and Wheat all took it on the chin today. corn down 10, beans down 5, wheat down 16. Next week could be ugly for corn and wheat if technical levels are broken. The beans may be the last stalwart for the bulls unless we start getting talk of a real drought. Have a […]

In my opinion, this is a bounce to sell. Sadly, we never got to my buy levels. I had 12,635 as my buy. The low was 12,648. In the S&P, the low was 1357, I had a buy down at 1338. So, unfortunately, we didn’t get chance to buy it there. Quite honestly, this is a rally I’d look to sell. If the S&P gets close to 1400, then sell some there ditto for the Dow at 13000. Use those levels to get short. Risk a reasonable amount. I believe between now and the end of April, those shorts will be very profitable. If I […]

In my opinion, this is a bounce to sell. Sadly, we never got to my buy levels. I had 12,635 as my buy. The low was 12,648. In the S&P, the low was 1357, I had a buy down at 1338. So, unfortunately, we didn’t get chance to buy it there. Quite honestly, this is a rally I’d look to sell. If the S&P gets close to 1400, then sell some there ditto for the Dow at 13000. Use those levels to get short. Risk a reasonable amount. I believe between now and the end of April, those shorts will be very profitable. If I […]

Interesting that on Mar 22nd an article came out penned by a GS strategist arguing for the long side of stocks and for being short bonds.
The Dow, at that point, was hovering at 13,200. Since that article, stocks have dropped 550 points, capped off with today’s trade down at 12,648.
The broader S&P posted a high at 1422 at that time. Today? Try 1357 for today’s low or 65 point hammering.
I just think its ironic that Goldman puts out a huge buy story and we melt. I don’t see how if clients bought on that recommendation, they have had a 4% plus haircut, […]

Interesting that on Mar 22nd an article came out penned by a GS strategist arguing for the long side of stocks and for being short bonds.
The Dow, at that point, was hovering at 13,200. Since that article, stocks have dropped 550 points, capped off with today’s trade down at 12,648.
The broader S&P posted a high at 1422 at that time. Today? Try 1357 for today’s low or 65 point hammering.
I just think its ironic that Goldman puts out a huge buy story and we melt. I don’t see how if clients bought on that recommendation, they have had a 4% plus haircut, […]