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Buy the rumor, sell the fact. A neutral to bullish number followed by a puke fest?
This suggests a head slap is coming for unpriced 2012 grain.

Today a friend sent me an article saying that about 45 percent of producers have nothing sold for 2012. It could get ugly for a farmer if they don’t have a good risk/management plan.
How ugly? How about ugly enough for Willie Nelson to have a chance to do a whole new round of fund raising for failed farmers. How could that happen, with near record high prices historically?
Very easily. If we return prices to below the […]

In the past few days, Goldman and the rest of the big managers came out with the latest” Big Idea.” In short, an end to the commodity supercyle and a beginning of money flow back into equities and away from commodities. They were arguing that now was the time to buy stocks. Now? after the Dow has rallied back from 6500 to 13,500, just 1,300 points from the record 2008 high. Now? afer the S&P has rebounded from 666 on its lows to above the 1400 level. Gee, now you tell me its time to buy? Seriously, You are telling me now to buy? Where […]

In the past few days, Goldman and the rest of the big managers came out with the latest” Big Idea.” In short, an end to the commodity supercyle and a beginning of money flow back into equities and away from commodities. They were arguing that now was the time to buy stocks. Now? after the Dow has rallied back from 6500 to 13,500, just 1,300 points from the record 2008 high. Now? afer the S&P has rebounded from 666 on its lows to above the 1400 level. Gee, now you tell me its time to buy? Seriously, You are telling me now to buy? Where […]

We’ll see 1400 shortly in the S&P cash. There’s resistance there, 1440 and then 1500. the all time high was 1576 back on the first week of October, 2008.
1365 looks to be the new floor of support.
Trade Accordingly.
Regardless of the fundamentals, the market is telling us it wants to go higher.
all those bearish fund managers quoted back in the New York Time and WSJ around December?
I hope they flipped and got long.
If they haven’t yet, I’d love to know when they finally flip.

On a side note, May corn back making a new high for the year. We just […]

We’ll see 1400 shortly in the S&P cash. There’s resistance there, 1440 and then 1500. the all time high was 1576 back on the first week of October, 2008.
1365 looks to be the new floor of support.
Trade Accordingly.
Regardless of the fundamentals, the market is telling us it wants to go higher.
all those bearish fund managers quoted back in the New York Time and WSJ around December?
I hope they flipped and got long.
If they haven’t yet, I’d love to know when they finally flip.

On a side note, May corn back making a new high for the year. We just […]

4 cents a bushel. 200 a contract. December Christmas Corn Puts.
If I am correct, these cuold be worth at least a dollar come harvest.
Buy them. Put them away. Don’t look at them til November.
I feel strongly about this.
I may be early on this bearish idea, but for 200 dollar bet with a possibility to make 5,000 on that 200 dollar bet, I like this.

CER

The S&P cash making its highest ticks since June 2008? The Dow also moving ahead of the 13,000 level.
Oil at 107. Back in 2008 oil was 34 dollars a barrel higher.
It just seems like a big dis connect to me.

The trend is bullish for stocks. We are at the top of our trading range, making new highs. I am hearing less and less bullishness from the cable voice boxes.

If you press me, I think we trade sideways to higher through May. I’d then sell in May and go away. I’d have stops in place in case we have a […]

Anytime we have a market rally after a seemingly bearish/neural report from the USDA it gives me pause.
Currently, its 10:05 AM.. Beans corn and wheat are rallying after moving lower on the open.
bottom line:
Cover the shorts. Targets were hit Wednesday and Thursday.
This could be short covering, but to me it smells like something else.
The dollar is rallying and grain is rallying. That’s also giving me pause.

On to the Stock indexes. The Dow had a break down to 12,721. a nice break.
I have had profits locked in and have more buy stops which are getting filled as i […]

For a while now, I have been suspect of the rally in the stock indexes. Go back and read my last few entries. I am not calling for the end of the world but its interesting how, as soon as CNBC, GMA, and your local TV anchor start touting the return to 13,000 in the Dow as a sign that “Happy Days are Here Again”.. the market steps in with a combination of leather face, Jason from Halloween, and the shark from Jaws in order to deliver some pain to the bulls.

Last week, I also did a report from the floor on the grains. […]

Here we are, within a stone’s throw of 1369. That high in the spooz was posted in May of 2011, May 2nd to be exact. To refresh any lack of short term memory, 4 months later, on 8/9/2011, S&P was at 1101. That only 268 handles in 20 week. No worries. Just another buying opportunity…(That was my attempt at sarcasm). 20% correction in 20 weeks.

Please keep that in mind as you watch TV and listen to the radio this week.
The squawking has been about the jump in oil prices. If the S&P can post at fresh run at this high, that will […]