Uncategorized

Here we are, within a stone’s throw of 1369. That high in the spooz was posted in May of 2011, May 2nd to be exact. To refresh any lack of short term memory, 4 months later, on 8/9/2011, S&P was at 1101. That only 268 handles in 20 week. No worries. Just another buying opportunity…(That was my attempt at sarcasm). 20% correction in 20 weeks.

Please keep that in mind as you watch TV and listen to the radio this week.
The squawking has been about the jump in oil prices. If the S&P can post at fresh run at this high, that will […]

For god sakes, I am watching cable TV this morning and I feel I have to write this letter this morning.
Please do not get long stocks here thinking that the Greek issue is all fixed. Now we have Portugal, Ireland,Spain… So don’t get lulled into complacency by TV headlines.
What happens if Greece does not stay the course?

Also, for the love of god, CNBC was asking “What’s next ? Dow 15,000??” Good lord almighty they are bullish beyond bullish.
All it takes is Greece getting a budget and all is right again in the world? Really.

I am looking for this […]

For god sakes, I am watching cable TV this morning and I feel I have to write this letter this morning.
Please do not get long stocks here thinking that the Greek issue is all fixed. Now we have Portugal, Ireland,Spain… So don’t get lulled into complacency by TV headlines.
What happens if Greece does not stay the course?

Also, for the love of god, CNBC was asking “What’s next ? Dow 15,000??” Good lord almighty they are bullish beyond bullish.
All it takes is Greece getting a budget and all is right again in the world? Really.

I am looking for this […]

This rally in S&P has been nice. Its especially nice if you faded the WSJ and NYTimes bearish news columns which were permeating the land between Christmas and the first week of January. If you go back and read my entries, I suggested fading this bearishness.

Alas, now that the S&P is 11.58 rallied up to 13.54, almost 200 handles in 9 weeks. That, my friends, is un sustainable. And now we are starting to see the dow challenge the “next big round number” at 13,000.

Looking at the S&P, though its been on a ridiculous rally if you go back to 1074 and […]

Fortunately, my shorts in beans which were profits remained profits even on this bounce. That’s why I use stops.

As for Corn, CH, old crop has been on a nice bounce. We are flirting with the 100 day moving average, a big technical level. 6.50 will be a bump in the road on a rally which will be fueled by short covering in the wheat.
There’s plenty of wheat, but Europe is worried about cold, Russian Exports, etc. etc.
Australia has another huge crop on hand.
Worldwide carry out is large and fundamentally negative. That being said, the funds are short 65K contracts of wheat. […]

Shorter term, I am still suspicious of the rally in the S&P. I was bearish slightly since 1/23. Today is 1/27 Yesterday we seem to have had a blow off top. People got caught long and then when the negative housing numbers came out, it dampened the initial fervor to buy stocks after the Fed’s Dovish remarks.
Longer term we may go back to challend the 1350 level and 1360 levels. Over the next 72 hours, I think its better to have some 13.00-12.80 puts on looking for a shorter term technical break to profit with.

Also, we have had an impressive 10 day rally […]

Shorter term, I am still suspicious of the rally in the S&P. I was bearish slightly since 1/23. Today is 1/27 Yesterday we seem to have had a blow off top. People got caught long and then when the negative housing numbers came out, it dampened the initial fervor to buy stocks after the Fed’s Dovish remarks.
Longer term we may go back to challend the 1350 level and 1360 levels. Over the next 72 hours, I think its better to have some 13.00-12.80 puts on looking for a shorter term technical break to profit with.

Also, we have had an impressive 10 day rally […]

Interestingly, the S&P cash has bounced 119 point in the last 4 weeks. On December 19th, we posted a low at 1203. Today’s high so far, has been 1322.

S&P cash is up at a long term trend line resistance today. Three points of to connect: First 1) High on 5/2/11 at 13.70 Second high 2) 7/7/11 at 13.56. Third intersection today at 13.16…. I’d sell this here and risk 5 points heat to the upside… down side target? 13.00 and then 12.80…

This is a good counter trend position. CNBC will be squawking today about the 6-month high in S&P.. That has to […]

Interestingly, the S&P cash has bounced 119 point in the last 4 weeks. On December 19th, we posted a low at 1203. Today’s high so far, has been 1322.

S&P cash is up at a long term trend line resistance today. Three points of to connect: First 1) High on 5/2/11 at 13.70 Second high 2) 7/7/11 at 13.56. Third intersection today at 13.16…. I’d sell this here and risk 5 points heat to the upside… down side target? 13.00 and then 12.80…

This is a good counter trend position. CNBC will be squawking today about the 6-month high in S&P.. That has to […]

USDA in a word. Bearish> Looks like we are headed back to our December lows. Remember those? 11.00 bean, 5.80 corn, 5.77 wheat?
We may be headed longer term towards grain returning to being prices LESS than the price of production… Just wait, Its possible.
I hope I am right, but… if we plant 97 million acres of corn this year and 1) we get average rain fall (instead of the 2 years of near drought we’ve had in 2010 and 2011) and if the hybrids kick in, we could have a huge (2Billion bushel) carry out in 2012.
This was broken down for […]