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Interesting. Today the stock market soars and Gold, true to form, sucked in johnny come lately’s who bought the top. I knew this morning when I saw the headlines in the business section crowing that the $1600 level had been breached that it was a good sale. If I hadn’t already been short, I would have sold more. But I had my position on and just sat with it.

Now, let me be clear, 6 months from now we may be at gold $2,000.00 The trend is certainly bullish over many many months. In the mean time, Gold settled today at 1589, after trading down […]

The 12,300 level holds. Dow futures now trading at 12,450. That’s a 150 point profit. Lock it in and let it ride.

Corn 20 higher overnight on crop condition drop. We dropped 3% in crop condition from 69% to 66% good to excellent rating.
Its a weather market. Go with the trend, which is higher for now. But be prepared to run and run fast if they stop the music.
Weather bull markets are great when you are long. When they end, though, its a train wreck.

I like being long beans. I continue to want to be long, especially if SX can pop […]

Today Christmas Cotton spiked down to fresh 7-month lows. December Cotton has lost 1/3 of its value from it Jun 3rd high at 140.90 down to today’s 7-month low at 94.46. In my opinion, its time to buy some cheap calls. Look at a December 118 calls or 123 calls. If you buy those, you are betting on a pull back 1/2 of the sell off.
A December cotton 118 call is 2.50 or $1,250.00. A 120 call is 2.25 or $1,125 dollars.
Its a good speculative play for the next 116 days.

On a separate note, the cash Dow held tough at 12,300. […]

Headline today “Gold Soars Above 1600”.. Really, a rally up to 1608 is considered soaring? I didn’t realize that.
I am more convinced than ever that this is a price level worth fading. To quote a friend of mine today, ” All the lousy traders he knows are buying gold at these levels, initiating new longs”.
Sell it, put a buy stop in, and head off to do something else. If you listen to the radio or watch TV this week, you’ll be dying to get long gold. I just can’t justify buying it here. For heaven’s sake, if you do need to […]

Today the talking heads are falling all over themselves talking about Gold. Apparently, Goldman Sachs some time ago put 1600 on the map as a bull target. Today we posted a high close to 1575. In May, we posted a high at 1577.5. Today we ticked off at 1574.30. That’s close enough for me to want to sell it here.
Or buy some 1480 or even some 1450 puts.

Buying puts eliminates the possibility of margin calls after the trade is in place. Its a buy and forget strategy which fits well if you don’t have the time or the stomach to sit and watch […]

Dow futures found support overnight at 12,319. Currently we are 150 pts higher than that low. It seems to me that the Europeans and Asians tried to run the tables lower overnight. Remember, in 2 more weeks, Europe shuts down for vacation. This could crystallize any bearish desire to break the indexes, cover their profits, and then sit on the beach drinking gin/tonic/ no ice.

My opinion has not changed. 12,243 is my next buy target. 12,356 was hit in Dow futures. final Buy target 12,130. If it gets there, I really want to load up on the buy side.

For the S&P, 1291 would […]

On June 16th, 15, and 22nd, Dow futures found support at 11,800. This corresponded with 11,862. Between That was roughly 3 weeks ago. 10 trading days saw the Dow Cash Rally 853 points !!!! Last Friday’s high was 12,753. The May 2nd high, just 2 months ago, was 12,876. That was a one year HIGH. So for the pundits to raise their hands and call the top, call the next leg of a double dip recession, call for the beginning of the next great depression, I believe is just pure hyperbole.

Most of these guys saying this don’t have one option or futures position […]

Interestingly enough, the same people who were talking about a new great depression when the Dow was down below 12,000 have now decided that its time for a double dip recession. The Dow rallies 850 pts, all is well::: We get a bad unemployment number and “the world is coming to an end once again”. I think the market held up remarkably well. I had some small buy orders 150pts below yesterday’s settlements in the Dow futures. The have been filled, although, quite honestly, I got the hee bee gee bies when they were filled. Yesterday’s settle in June Dow was 12,680. My buys were […]

I had 11,900 as a buy in Dow Cash. Quite frankly, I was happy with the 500 to 600 pt profits on those buys.

The shorts which I initiated between 12,400 and 12,500 have all been blown out with my buy stops.

I believe we are over done to the buy side, but for now I am flat stock indexes.

Perhaps this Summer rally, punishing all those whose plan was “Sell in May and Go Away”.. is finished. We are in the beginning of July. Most traders will be evening up as we head into August. In general, I try not to trade in […]

I didn’t get a chance to write last night. We were very busy in front of today’s USDA crop report.
Thankfully, one of my rules is that its good to get flat, on a futures basis, in front of numbers.
I like options in front of numbers b/c you can ABSOLUTELY know your risk.
Case in point.
CN old crop corn was 30 cents higher yesterday, Today, with no limits, it is 75 cents lower.
With the Acres report out, there is probably another 1.50 to 1.70 risk below this market.
To say that most farmers/ producers were bullish would be an understatement. With […]