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With corn at record levels, one has to consider at what point it continues to attract fresh buyers. A bull must be fed every day. A bull market needs sustained buying. A bull market can fail, no so much do to some graphic or frightening catalyst. Very often bull markets begin to turn on nothing more than a lack of new buyers.
I believe that CZ at 715 is getting into the latter stages of attractiveness. Morgan Stanley came out and predicted 900 new crop CZ corn, everyone and his brother is bulled up.
Wheat is already starting to roll over technically, Beans can’t get […]

The March low in the Dow cash was 11,555. With the failure of support at 12,055, and the move below 12,000, sell stops have been touched off. I wrote last week that if the market did fall apart, we’d get short on a sell stop. I had had a small winning long position on last week.
Using good risk/reward parameters, that became a net profit on 1/3 and a push on the rest. The most I risked on the last 1/3 of the position was just under 160pts.

The old adage sell in May and go away has rewarded bears again. Is this the start […]

I’d sit tight the Dow position.
At this point its a push, with a free upside potential if it rallies.

Tomorrow the USDA releases crop production figures.

Interestingly, CZ settled 6 3/4 cents higher than the last trade. I don’t think its the pit who settles the prices. However, this is ridiculous. It triggers the technical traders buy signals.

It settled the CN-CZ five cents out from where it was actually trading. 6-3/4 cents is an extra 350 bucks profit per contract. If you have 2,000 contracts on, you just picked up a cool $700K “profit” just based on the settlement.

I predict, eventually, […]

Yesterday’s low in Cash Dow was 12,070. today’ high has been 12, 173. If you bought yesterday, please put a sell stop in. With this strategy, you should come away from this position at worse case, with a push. If you can lock in a small profit all, the better.

Now I would sit and wait. Mr. Bernanke is speaking this afternoon. Your guess is as good as mine as to what he will say, or how the market’s will re act..
I do know that after an 806 point down move from the May 2nd high at 12,876, today.. June 7th, just 4-1/2 […]

12.093 was our April 18th low in the Dow Cash. Last Friday’s low at 12, 104 was a great buy. 12, 061 was my target. If you have not bought it already, buy it today.
I’d risk 100-200 points loss. I’d have scale out sell orders above at 12, 284 and
12,334. 12, 400 should be sold initially.

Please place stop orders after each contract is bought. You must manage the down side risk.
That is all
CER

Oh, my goodness, its already begun. Summer’s apon us, earning season doesn’t kick in strong again until next September, and the Stock Index bears are waking up.

Stock indexes are generally accepted as a forward looking indicators. In March of 2009 S&P Cash was at 666. It doubled in in February of 2011. Two years of rally. 666 times two is 1332. Today the S&P Cash is at 1320.

In the CASH Dow, the March 2009 low was 6470. A double would be 12,940. We never got that double. Our high, 12,876 we just picked off on May 2, 2011. We missed the exact “doubling” […]

Last night I wrote that the Dow futures had popped above an upper trend line which had been resistance over the past 3 weeks. Take these three points, the 5/2/11 high at 12873, the 5/11/11 high at 12744, and the 5/13/11 high at 12713.. Draw the trend line.
Yesterday’s settlement was well above this trend line.

I wrote yesterday that the risk/reward looked sketchy. Sitting 350 points off the highs, buying a dip looking for a run back up for 350 points, was not that good of a risk/ reward.

I cautioned to make sure you used a sell stop if you bought yesterday. […]

Last Friday I wrote how the movement in Wheat had finally hit the national media. CNBC, forever perma bulls, ran a story which could only be described as “friendly” wheat..
The suggestion was to look favorably on the High protein wheat in Minneapolis and KC…. 1) FACT this report came ONE DAY AFTER Minneapolis posted its contract high at 10.78 last Thursday… Last Friday, the high was 1972- 1/2. Today’s low was 10.17-1/2. From tip to trough, that’s 60 cents of downside risk in 72 hours… 60 cents on a one lot is 3K.. On a typical 10K spec account, if a customer had a […]

WN has 40 cents of downside risk here. SX has 50 cents of downside risk.
Both contracts have failed at upper trend line Resistance.
SX has a trendline from 1410 April 11th, drawn to the may 26th high at 1382 1/2..Sell against these trendlines.

In WN go to the Feb 9th high at 950 3/4… then the 5/27 high at 8.27… support in WN is from the march 16th low at 691 and the may 13th low at 7.23.. support comes in at 741 1/2…

That is all for now.

CER