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I don’t like having positions on over a long weekend. Markets will be closed until Monday night at 6PM.
For my taste, that is too much risk. If you have positions on with good profits, consider getting out today and putting them back on Tuesday Morning.

One interesting thing I saw today, at about 11:45 PM Chicago time, CNBC had Dennis Gartman on an interview about wheat. Long story short… Surprise??? CNBC had a bullish tone to it.
I walked out of the office for 15 minutes to get a bit to eat afer the interview was finished. I came back and WN had […]

As the school year ends, graduations and weddings are upon us, its not unusual to see the stock indexes go to sleep. June is upon us, July is a holiday month in the US, and then Europe basically shuts down for August.
Barring any unforeseen calamity, I could see a period of sideways chop in about a 500 or 600 point sideways chop in no man’s land.

Grains: Volatility rules, but so far,I still like the strategy of selling rallies with tight protective stops. November beans is hugging a trend line with 13.50 being the concentration area. A settlement above 13.70 would be bullish a […]

Dow Jones Cash has support at 12,321,,, 12,161 and the 12,000. Sadly we never got the doubling print up above in Dow Cash, but we did in the S&P..
In the S&P we have support at 1306, and then 1291.. Quite frankly, a settlement below 1300 in the S&P cash will have the CNBC reporters running scared crying that the sky is falling..March 17th we had an s&P low at 1240…

If you want to buy these dips, be ware.. If the funds start running this thing lower, all bets are off.

Two weeks ago, I had an entry about how I was […]

Sell Target gets hit, Buy target gets hit.. Now What?
I watched a client ride a 12 cent winner to a 35 cent loser back to a 23 cent winner in the past 4 days.
I suggested all along he have protective stops. He declined to use them. I can’t force some one to take my advice.
After 23 years doing this, I think I might have some insight to pass along, but some people don’t seem to value that experience.
They want your council until it goes against their ideas, then they ignore it. If they are wrong in their decision, there is […]

I know its scary to sell into a powerful rally, but the area I wanted to sell in SX has been hit here today on a powerful sympathetic rally with corn. Currently the 13.50 level in futures is trading. Risk 35 cents on a sell stop to try to catch a potential move lower.

You MUST have a protective buy stop here.

In fact, with the volatility we are seeing in the grains, you must have stops on all positions entered at this point.

Old Crop CN corn has completed a 62% retracement of its recent $1.31 down move. We hit that target at 7.40 […]

Very quickly,
Look for 12,325 as a buying opportunity. Next I would buy 12,150, and then 12,000.
Those are scale in buy targets.
As always, have an exit strategy with sell stops to protect your buys.

In general, the “risk off” herd mentality gives us short term buying opportunities if we are fleet of foot.

These targets are for more short-term trades then, “buy and hold”. In other words,
have resting buy orders, look for 50 to 100 point pops to collect profits on bounces.

PS. The bean shorts are looking better and better. In general, I am a seller of rallies now in […]

In my opinion, New crop beans are a good sale here. I’d like to ideally sell SX at 13.40 The market is getting supportive news which should be bullish. However, the market is re acting sluggishly.
Perhaps the 8 month, $6.00 rally is long in the tooth. We have already had two size able corrections in the past 6 months, with no follow through. In fact, traders who sold into those breaks got chased out both times with rally’s of 3 dollars back in November and most recently in March, almost most 2 dollars. Stubborn bulls have gotten paid for being stubborn since last June […]

On April 27th, I wrote a note here saying that I did not want to own the US Dollar until it traded down to 71. On that day, we were trading at 73.70. Five trading days later, the US dollar fell to 72.86, which was the lowest tick since July of 2008. I felt that we would grind down to the 71 level.
I was wrong. Clearly wrong, as born out by the market’s action.

Interestingly, the US dollar found support within days of the IMF warning that the US was on its way out and would bow to China in the next 5 […]

I talked this week about 100 dollar barrel oil being a fulcrum. It seems that supply/demand has finally reared its head, with gasoline, crude oil, heating oil and the whole complex coming under sell pressure.

One thing seems to be evident is 4.30 and plus gasoline affects all US citizens usage, be they “rich” or “poor”. With an average 20 gallon gas tank in a car, when you have to spend north of 85 bucks to fill up people think twice about gas usage.

July corn currently is locked limit offer, down 30 cents. there is a gap down below at 660-654 which beckons to […]

4 million more corn acres than last year, raised ethanol usage, but lowered domesic usage, raised carry out for old crop, but lowered the 2011 trend line yield 3 bu/ per acre.

Early opening call, 20- 30 lower. It looks bearish for old crop, bullish for new crop.

Wheat carry out is bearish. Soybean carryout is neutral.

That’s my early take on this USDA.

At 10 AM, I think we’ll be back to trading the weather forcast for these grains.

Good Trading
CER