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Please go back to April 14th. I suggested selling cotton. Cotton made 3 month lows today. Cover 1/3 and move protective buy stops on the other 2/3rd. We’ve had a 40 cent break. It could go a lot further. Time will Tell.

Dow cash stubbornly held on to its rally here today. We are within 200 points of the upside target 12,920.

Corn wheat and beans moved lower. The spring weather market seems to have begun to turn. As wheels turn in the Western Corn belt, pressure will be taken off of these high prices.

Today the rumor was a very large trader blew out […]

I have been looking for a level here to get long the US dollar. Looking at long term chart, I think there is another 3 cent down side risk here. 71 area is where I’d like to buy it, either on a flush or after a slow grind down to those levels.

The Bernanke speaks in a historical press conference.. Does anyone ever remember Greenspan ever having a press conference?

I stick by what I wrote yesterday. I’d turn off the computer and go fishing if I was thinking of trading bonds or stock indexes.

Interesting to see talk of the CME asking to expand […]

I have been looking for a level here to get long the US dollar. Looking at long term chart, I think there is another 3 cent down side risk here. 71 area is where I’d like to buy it, either on a flush or after a slow grind down to those levels.

The Bernanke speaks in a historical press conference.. Does anyone ever remember Greenspan ever having a press conference?

I stick by what I wrote yesterday. I’d turn off the computer and go fishing if I was thinking of trading bonds or stock indexes.

Interesting to see talk of the CME asking to expand […]

12,920 is a perfect double from the panic low at 6460. Today’s high at 12,550 is less than 400 point from that target.
I think we’ll see that print in the next six weeks.

The Bernanke may have something to say about that, however.

Bottom line, we have had a great rally, no one has taken credit for it. My guess is that when someone steps up and takes credit for it, that will be the top.

Then of course when the correction comes, they will blame “evil speculators”.

That is all.

PS I continue to be friendly the US dollar at […]

The Bernanke is going to have a press conference tomorrow. Strategy?
Turn off your computer and do not trade.

There are 240 trading days in a year. Some days are better days to head off fishing.

If, however, you must trade. I would have outlier bids and offers in what ever you are trading.

In the Dow Cash… have buy orders 100 and 200 points below the market. Have sell orders 100 and 200 points above the market resting.

If I am initiating a trade on a day when “anything can happen” I want a giant head start.

On a personal note, I got […]

Sell the Dow here at 12,400. If we can’t settle above 12,400 we could be right back down where we were 48 hours ago.

Its a holiday weekend. Who wants to go home long over Easter Weekend?

That is all.

CER

The sell target in gold was hit at 1500. We promptly broke down to 1493 for a nice 6 buck scalp.
Hope you took advantage of the move.. Since that high, we have not gotten above 1497.80, but I think we will test 1500 at least a few more times. After the third test, I would not want to be selling it there. We are just pausing here.

So sell it at 1500. Risk 5 or 7 bucks to the upside.

Good Trading

Watch the 12,000 level in cash Dow and the 1300 level in S&P.
If the indexes can consolidate around these areas, showing strength, then we may have a shot at taking a new leg higher.

Having Geitner get grilled on Face the Nation on Sunday, followed by the S&P warning shot that the USA debt was headed towards being comparable to Greece or Ireland, if the Congress is not careful got me thinking.

Having the threat of US downgrading the credit worthiness of the country is about as bearish an item I could think of long term.
The US fiscal policy is like a naval […]

Watch the 12,000 level in cash Dow and the 1300 level in S&P.
If the indexes can consolidate around these areas, showing strength, then we may have a shot at taking a new leg higher.

Having Geitner get grilled on Face the Nation on Sunday, followed by the S&P warning shot that the USA debt was headed towards being comparable to Greece or Ireland, if the Congress is not careful got me thinking.

Having the threat of US downgrading the credit worthiness of the country is about as bearish an item I could think of long term.
The US fiscal policy is like a naval […]

Dow short pays off our patience. 12,400 looks like a massive double top on the charts.

We took profits on Friday. Now I am going to just lower buy stops every time we break 50 points. I am not sure if 12,000 will hold, or if we break down to 11,600-11,500 level. 12,054 is the first support, 11,950 is the second, 11,842 is the third. cover shorts at those levels.

Gold did not reach the target yet to sell at 1500 today’s high tick was 1498.60. close enough for horse shoes? However, its nice to still be long a small amount from 45 bucks lower… […]