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Today, I exited the 2/3 of the long gold position. 40 bucks in 3 days was a great pop.

I have taken profits on the short Dow position, and remain net short a small position. I still don’t think this market can get above the 12,400 level. I continue to look for a sell off down to the 11,900 level, or the 11,650 level.

I like buying July beans at 1330, and may beans at 1320. we are due for a nice 50 cent bounce higher after the dollar sell off we saw over the past 11 trading days.

Crude oil remains a frustrating trade […]

I like selling rallies now in Cotton.

Last Thursday, on the 31st, Cotton got very bullish numbers on that crop report.
Since then it has moved sideways to lower. When a market gets bullish news and does not rally, that is a sign of weakness.

For a good spec, consider buying CN 168 or 155 puts for the CN 168 put will cost you 4k. the 155 put will cost you 2K.
Today is April 14th. These options expire in 57 days on Jun 10th.
I think in the next 57 days these will be profitable to own.

That is All.
CER

Right now, I am very pleased with the Dow Short position I am sitting on. Ditto on the buy for Gold. Tuesday afternoon, Gold dipped down to 1445. I had buys at 1450 and 1475. Right now gold is on its high at 1468. I am taking some profits, and moving my sell stops up to insure a guaranteed winner.

For the time being, I think crude oil, while a choppy whippy trade. I had a resting buy order in may crude at 105.25, but it never traded there. I could see us trading in a 10 dollar range here between 105 and 115, but […]

The short Dow position looks good. Now I have moved stops to guarantee a push at worse.

Crude oil looks dicey. I am going to exit my longs on a sell stop here if we get a move below 106.50.
Better to exit and re group than to get sliced and diced.

I still have some puts on in the crude which looked pretty negative 4 days ago, but in the end, may come back to be a good risk reward.

When gold tests 1450 to 1445, I would look for a buying opportunity.

Right now, these crude prices are subject to the vagaries of […]

Crude oil had what looks to be a key-reversal day on the charts. That’s a technical way to say we may have had blow off top. Its no coincidence that this may have co incided with my bailing on my short position, and taking a small long position at 108.00 Technically, 108-107 looks like a support band. 113 is now the upside, short-term resistance.
support for CK is 107, 105, and then 103.25… I would use those levels to initiate long positions.

Volatility will give us the chance to trade both sides of this market. That being said, I am still long at 108.10.

[…]

Both Gold and Crude rotate up through resistance, opening the door to much higher prices in both those commodities. 110.00 was resistance in crude, 1,450 was resistance in Gold. I have been stopped out of my gold shorts, and have flipped long.
I am still sitting short the dow futures against 12,400.
Time will tell.
CER

First things first.
Gold: the 1450 target was reached. I exited a small long position, flipped and am now short. I am looking for a pull back down to 1428 and then 1418.
If, however, we rotate up to to a new high, I will be stopped out with a small loss.

Dow cash traded up to 12,438 today for a high. Dow Futures have yet to trade above 12,377. The old high on Feb 18th in the futures was 12,379. I am being patient with my short position. However, if we have a sharp up move, I will be stopped out, and […]

Bottom line, Dow cash has trouble breathing above 12,400. I continue to be short here, looking for a correction own to 12,100 to take some profits, and then again at 11,800 on a flush lower. Time will tell.

In the grains, I am wary of being long going into Friday’s Supply and Demand.
After corn has had a $1.00 rally after last Thurdays’s USDA planting number, the market looks over done. Corn stocks lost 200 Million bushels, but the market rally has adjusted for that with the sharp rally.

Corn has gained $1.00 on soybeans in 3 days… Goes to show the pro’s lose […]

USDA report showed 300 Million bushels light in the carry out. The market responded by heading sharply higher. We were limit up Plus 30 cents. The synthetic was showing we’d be another 35 higher on opening tonight. 65 cents rally back in 2 days.

I would stand aside. If you are already long, hold it and look for a challenge of the 750 area in CK. That is just 50 cents away.

I remain friendly beans. Soybeans have a way to go on the charts.
It seems pretty clear the market wants to test the 07/08 highs.

Be patient with the Dow shorts.

Crude is […]

I want to maintain my shorts in the Dow, with a hard buy stop above 12,400> I am not going to tell you my specific level. When and if i get stopped out I will tell you.

I am comfortable taking a little more heat on my initial short position. However, I am not going to fight this bounce for ever.

I am comfortable being bearish here, especially since today I saw CNBC noting that we were “just 30 points away from our 2011 highs”… makes me want to sell more here. However, shorts are only good if they make you dough. The stops will […]