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Friday, I suggested getting short at the 106.50-106.00 area. Today we are down 1.50.
Make sure you move your buy stop down and secure guaranteed profit. Do not let this position be anything less than a winner.

I am still short the Dow. I will wait another few days. 12,400 may be an area to add to shorts at 12,100. However, we will have to have an iron clad exit stop above 12,400.

As for the grains, we will chop sideways until Thursday’s USDA report. Gold is down another 13.00
I can’t believe I was just .40 cents away from getting filled an being […]

I will stay short the dow futures here, risking probably another 100 points or so.
For crude oil, we have returned to the scene of the crime, with this resistance at 106.00

I would wait to see if we can sell futures at yesterday’s high around 106.50. If you wanted to go ahead and step out with a short term, low risk position, I would buy a may 99.00 put for 850 dollars. That gets you short for the next 20 days. for a little more time, I would go to june put at 98 for 1.85 or $1,850.00

This is a counter trend trade, […]

I will stay short the dow futures here, risking probably another 100 points or so.
For crude oil, we have returned to the scene of the crime, with this resistance at 106.00

I would wait to see if we can sell futures at yesterday’s high around 106.50. If you wanted to go ahead and step out with a short term, low risk position, I would buy a may 99.00 put for 850 dollars. That gets you short for the next 20 days. for a little more time, I would go to june put at 98 for 1.85 or $1,850.00

This is a counter trend trade, […]

Still waiting for China to show up in the USDA… My gut tells me we’ll be waiting for a while.

We are short the Dow futures at 12100. We got filled overnight. I have a buy stop above, but I am looking to risk one standard deviation to the upside.
We’ll sit tight now and see how it turns out.

I am really looking at buying the US Dollar index on a spec once again. Two weeks ago it looked pretty good. We made a small profit. I think you do one of the two following trades 1) buy a june dollar index future […]

Still waiting for China to show up in the USDA… My gut tells me we’ll be waiting for a while.

We are short the Dow futures at 12100. We got filled overnight. I have a buy stop above, but I am looking to risk one standard deviation to the upside.
We’ll sit tight now and see how it turns out.

I am really looking at buying the US Dollar index on a spec once again. Two weeks ago it looked pretty good. We made a small profit. I think you do one of the two following trades 1) buy a june dollar index future […]

There is trendline on the daily charts above the current Dow cash level. 12123 is the trend line intersecton to sell. Tomorrow its 12109.
I suggest selling this rally here. The Dow has rallied 564 points in 3 sessions.

I think this is a great rally to sell on the initial move up. Looking at these charts, there is support at 11,450… That is taking advantage of the almost 1,000 point break from the February 18th and 22nd highs at 12,376 and 12,379.

I like this rather than waiting for another run up to those highs.

Good Trading
CER

With the pop up here above 11,850 we were stopped out of the rest of our shorts.

I have a small long position on, with an upside target of 12,400. I will patiently wait to sell that level.

I am patiently waiting to exit longs and initiate shorts at 1449 in gold.

The same people who were panic selling silver at 27, will be panic buying gold looking for a pop above 40.00
The same people selling their long gold at 1380 will be scrambling to try to buy a “break out” at 1450. We will be there to sell it.

Finally, China syndrome. Still […]

Dow Jones cash settles at 11,858. We are still short from 400 points above on some contracts, with buy stops protecting profits.

I am out of the Dollar trade as of today. The bounce I was looking for was half hearted, and there is too much speculative action in the Dollar/Yen cross trade.

So, in my opinion, be short, or stand aside.

For those of you who read my letter, you can see how I was trying to buy the panic break in the grains.
The bottom came when I had gotten down to a skeleton position after being repeatedly stopped out on new longs […]

Dow cash looks like that 11666 was the right point to cover shorts and get flat.
I am still short a few, but might get stopped out any minute here. Currently we are 11781 in the cash Dow, up 168.00 There are worse things than taking 600 to 700 points on a short winning position. Each contract paid off an average of $6,500 bucks. I can only hope you had a couple dozen on.

I am watching the long US dollar position. I am not sure where its going, but right now its a push at worse, with a huge upside. I’ll take that all […]

Dow cash looks like that 11666 was the right point to cover shorts and get flat.
I am still short a few, but might get stopped out any minute here. Currently we are 11781 in the cash Dow, up 168.00 There are worse things than taking 600 to 700 points on a short winning position. Each contract paid off an average of $6,500 bucks. I can only hope you had a couple dozen on.

I am watching the long US dollar position. I am not sure where its going, but right now its a push at worse, with a huge upside. I’ll take that all […]