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Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke spoke on Sixty minutes last night. In general, it was a non event. I believe many folks got short stock indexes, got long the metals, and grains, looking for a surprise. Those who made large bearish speculative moves prior to this anticipated speech, most certainly were disappointed today.

As I write this, the Stock indexes remain firm, only down 17 points in the cash Dow and 2.50 in Cash S&P. The US dollar indexes move up to the 80.00 level and then backed off. However traders who were looking for a sell of in the dollar from some Bernanke surprise had […]

The unemployment number, for much of the 1980’s 1990’s and up until about 2007, was often the most anticipated number. Very often the volatility that went along with that number meant it was one day that both bulls and bears had a chance to make good money trading the markets through the day. Specifically the 30 year down to the euro dollars, (the entire yield curve) would rock.

I continue to think that with interest rates at 0, effectively, and official unemployment hovering around 10 percent, the impact of the number as a trading opportunity has been cut significantly. Simply stated, its an opportunity, […]

The unemployment number, for much of the 1980’s 1990’s and up until about 2007, was often the most anticipated number. Very often the volatility that went along with that number meant it was one day that both bulls and bears had a chance to make good money trading the markets through the day. Specifically the 30 year down to the euro dollars, (the entire yield curve) would rock.

I continue to think that with interest rates at 0, effectively, and official unemployment hovering around 10 percent, the impact of the number as a trading opportunity has been cut significantly. Simply stated, its an opportunity, […]

On March 6,2009 the Dow Jones posted a low at 6,469.95… Fast Forward to this November 5th, just 18 trading sessions ago when we traded to a high at 11,451.53…
I am not trying to call a high, but for a very long time, if you’ve been following my daily musings, I have felt that a rally up to 11,469.95 was inevitable. For some, a high at 11,451, just 18 points away from a perfect 5,000 point rally, was close enough.

I myself got bearish there and although it took a little time, had my short positions pay off. I still have some 10,700 puts […]

Today we came within 2 1/2 cents of my upside target in CZ (December Corn) at 555.
Just goes to show what patience can give us. I am still long a small position from the original buy in at 5.11

My shorts in the Stock indexes were stopped out, thankfully. We booked profits, however, I did not feel the need to flip and get long.
Some time between now and the end of January, we will have a chance to buy on a break.
There is a seasonal tendency for markets to rally through December, in thin holiday trade.
As far as I am […]

We didn’t quite get to 10900, my target to cover 1/4 of my shorts. 10,929, or 29 points is the low tick in Dow Cash, Dow futures, printed 10916.

I can’t see anything short term bullish for the stock indexes, save for the seasonal tendency to rally through the end of the year. I had thought the North Korea uncertainty, perhaps the Wiki leaks issue, or the European debt monsters would push us lower.

I still am bearish, and I will leave it at that. However, as always, I have buy stops insuring profitable shorts which have taken the last 5 weeks to develop […]

My honest advice is to be very very careful over the next 5 weeks. Traders who had good years are backing off, decreasing their activity, planning for 2011.

The markets are thin at best, with less liquidity translating to more risk.
One thing I have learned, is that over the last 22 years of trading, generally the next 5 weeks is a mine field. But that’s my personal opinion.

I would have very few positions left on, and i would not be very aggressive. That’s my advice.

That being said, there are still opportunities.

Overnight, CZ came within 1/2 cent of my upside target […]

Trend line violations can give a trader night mares. Just 2 days ago, I wrote about the 513 area and how a settlement below that trend line intersection would open the door to a test of the 5.00 level.

The key was the settlement. We settled right on that trend line. So, yesterday, when we traded clearly below it during the first ten minutes of trading, every one and his brother got short, speculating we would go down and get the 5.00 print, hit sell stops and then explore the space below. With the funds still long 360K contracts, that was pretty logical logic. […]

I was looking for a rally like this yesterday in the grains. When we didn’t get it, i thought we would get lower. We got down to 506 in CZ after the opening, got all the locals short and then snapped higher twenty cents. I was still long a small amount from Sunday night’s spike down to 509, when I bought 511’s. I had a stop on those at 505. For some reason, I did not get stopped out, and low and be hold, we rallied higher. Of course, tomorrow we could be right down lower again. This volatility give you a lot of opportunity.

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No one could have predicted that North Korea and South Korea would start shelling one another overnight. However, this looks like a push which could give us short term-flush. I am not talking about a debacle, by any means, but a healthy correction was overdue. The stock indexes completed a 2 year stealth rally, with the Dow cash alone rallying back almost 5,000 point from the Panic Lows of Spring 2009, when we had a low tick of 6,649.00

This bearish world development, combined with thin holiday markets, could set the table for a flush across the board, in grains as well.
Already, overnight, December […]