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We are at a key point at this 513 area in CZ. My upside target got stopped out overnight. I am thinking about buying more here, but it looks vulnerable to a continued sell off. There is a trend line going all the way back to our June Contract Lows. We are dancing around that trend line. Right now we have only one hour left before the market closes. These are holiday markets, which Thanksgiving around the corner on Thursday. Holiday markets can be quite volatile and subject to selling pressure. If the pros can lean on this thing and get us headed towards 5.00, […]

So far, we have seen a failure of the grains to extend the rally. With 45 minutes left in the day, I would anticipate further lower price movement. Its the Friday before Thanksgiving week, so many traders will begin curtailing their activity. In fact, there generally will be less volume over the next 2 months in general, barring unforeseen surprises. Lack of volume due to a lack of interest translates in to much higher volatility, and and risk.

CZ is setting up to be an outside day down, on the charts which is bearish. Although I am still long from 511 in CZ I only […]

Still long, have moved my stops up on 1/3. Took profits on another 1/3. Looking to exit at 555 and turn around and go short at that level.

In the Dow Cash, waiting for a flush tomorrow down to 10873 to cover shorts. I want to get long if the Dow trades down to 10700.

Once again, we have been spun around by Chinese comments. When they need a rally, they talk of importing corn from Argentina. When they want a break, they talk about arresting speculators in their country and raising reserve requirements.
These Chinese, with all their Communist Training, are better Capitalists than […]

Still long, have moved my stops up on 1/3. Took profits on another 1/3. Looking to exit at 555 and turn around and go short at that level.

In the Dow Cash, waiting for a flush tomorrow down to 10873 to cover shorts. I want to get long if the Dow trades down to 10700.

Once again, we have been spun around by Chinese comments. When they need a rally, they talk of importing corn from Argentina. When they want a break, they talk about arresting speculators in their country and raising reserve requirements.
These Chinese, with all their Communist Training, are better Capitalists than […]

The longs a 529 were stopped out. My resting order to buy CZ at 511 was filled last night, CZ traded to a low at 509. The sell stop at 506 1/2 was never in play. We bounced 15 cents to settle at 524. I like being long here. I took 12 cents profit on 1/3 of the position, and will manage it today. I have sell stops below which guarentee profits on the remaining 2/3rd. Over all, I am pleased with the way my targets have been getting hit recently. The key is now, to manage the profit in a disciplined manner.
I am […]

The target in CZ has been hit. Long now at 529. Low today so far is 527 3/4. Look for a 15 to 20 cent rally. Right now I took profits on 1/3 of the position at 530. At this point, its a free trade. I will look to sell another 1/3 at 540. The rest I will hold for a bit. I have a sell stop below the market, in case we roll over and head down to the next support target, 511.

Good Trading

The shorts, in the Stock indexes are working for now. A settlement below 11000 in the Dow should bring […]

This week should be interesting, technically in the Dow Cash. A failure to settle above the 11350 level should open the door down to a test of 10,900 and then 10,700.
The over all intermediate and longer term trend remains bullish. Last week’s 2-year high at 11,454 was a victory for the bulls. A rally from the depths of depression this Summer at the 9600 level over the July 4th weekend, constitutes almost a 2,000 point rally… 1,854 points if you want an exact number.

I would argue, if Obama’s party had won the mid terms, Time or Newsweek or some equally important periodical would […]

Two days ago, on my last entry, I suggested it was a good time to buy puts on gold. I also had 547 1/2 as a target in CZ (December Corn). I get a few emails when i am early on a call or opinion. Last night’s low in CZ was 545 1/4, and then we bounced higher 8 cents from that low to settle at 552 3/4. next stop is 529 5/8. if the wheels really come off, 511 is a target for CZ.

China talking about controlling inflation overnight. Generally, this spurred a sell off in commodities and another hic up lower for […]

I was listening to, of all things, NPR last night. I like to listen to them because with their general prgressive skew, its very interesting to listen to them when they comment on “the economy” or “capitalist”. It makes me think of a 12 year girl sifting through the “icky” garbage to find her retainer. She really doesn’t want to even talk about it, but she has too, or her parents will have to cough up another 300 bucks.
I was amused, then, to hear NPR talking about all time highs in Gold. They mentioned that the “real” all time high adjusted for inflation, was […]

The market has spoken. It always does. Triple top resistance, once violated, as we just did yesterday, is a powerful statement. That resistance should become support as we head into the future. While I was looking for a fade, to sell new highs, if you read my entry, I wrote about the need to keep buy stops tight. An opinion is only good if it gets you profits.

Upside targets in the Dow Cash: 11,790, 11,867, 11,925, and of course, 12,000.

Upside targets in S&P cash: 1255, 1274, 1303, 1313.

At some point, we will have a good 25% retracement, for now, between QE2 and […]