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The market has spoken. It always does. Triple top resistance, once violated, as we just did yesterday, is a powerful statement. That resistance should become support as we head into the future. While I was looking for a fade, to sell new highs, if you read my entry, I wrote about the need to keep buy stops tight. An opinion is only good if it gets you profits.

Upside targets in the Dow Cash: 11,790, 11,867, 11,925, and of course, 12,000.

Upside targets in S&P cash: 1255, 1274, 1303, 1313.

At some point, we will have a good 25% retracement, for now, between QE2 and […]

Volatility, anyone? Take a look at the one minute chart after the Fed Announcement yesterday. Cash Dow Broke from 11,226 down to 11,097 in about 2 minutes and then rebounded the 100 points back to the 11,215 level. A good scalping opportunity. In the cash S&P, the action was 1196 down to 1183 (13 handles) followed by a snap back HIGHER to 1197. A strong reaction after an initial panic.

As of this writing, 755AM Thursday 11/4/10, futures are 11.20 higher and Dow futures are 100 higher. Although I was looking for a correction, lower, the sharp snap back in response to the Fed’s action […]

Will we take out our 2 year high of 11,258 in the Dow Jones Cash? Or are we looking at a triple top? We have not been able to take out that level. I am leaning towards a correction down to the 10630 level and then perhaps the 10,400 level in the cash Dow.

If we settle above 11,300 a rally to the old highs at 11,532 and then the Aug 08 high at 11,782 seem to be slam dunk upside targets.

In the cash S&P, however we have quite a way to go to test our April 2010 2-year high at 1219.80 (close enough […]

Will we take out our 2 year high of 11,258 in the Dow Jones Cash? Or are we looking at a triple top? We have not been able to take out that level. I am leaning towards a correction down to the 10630 level and then perhaps the 10,400 level in the cash Dow.

If we settle above 11,300 a rally to the old highs at 11,532 and then the Aug 08 high at 11,782 seem to be slam dunk upside targets.

In the cash S&P, however we have quite a way to go to test our April 2010 2-year high at 1219.80 (close enough […]

Our permanently bullish cable news commentators flashed a trailer this morning, that “November greets investors with higher prices”. Wow, the market is open for 15minutes, is over the “magical” number of gaining more than 100 pts, and all is right in the world.

I still want to see how we re act when we go up the the old April high…

I can’t help but want to fade popular delusions… The whole world is aware, it seems, that the mutual fund industry puts money to work on or near the first and fifteenth of the month when they get their 401K infusions. Those mangers get […]

We couldn’t take out the April high at 10218. We got to 11,195 Monday. I think that 10,710 is a reasonable downside target, after a one month, 1,300 point rally. The 1,300 point rally doesn’t get the attention of the mass media.

However, going into Election Tuesday, if we start with a tasty correction, there will be plenty of crying going on for the talking heads. I really like 10,700 level because it corresponds with the August highs from this summer. Those old resistance levels become good support, albeit sometimes temporarily, on the way back down. If 10,700 does not hold, look for 10555 and […]

Last Friday’s spike down in the US dollar at 75.85 opens the door for a run down, eventually, to our November 2009 2 year low at 74.21. If that does not hold, the next target below is 71.55 and then 71.05. These markets turn and move like a Naval task force, with hundreds of ships in tow. The turn has begun, exactly how far the market moves, no one, and I mean no one knows. This movement, however, will give opportunities on both the short and long side.

Already, it has brought out the perma bulls in the grains. 7.00 corn? 14 dollar beans? […]

The past 2 sessions, we have seen the markets take a decided breather. Yesterday and today, across the board, it seems that the world is taking a minute to think. The lone exception would be cotton, which ended the day limit bid old crop here, once again moving to historic highs. Read your history books, and you will learn how cotton once was the backbone of the US farm economy. The civil war, in part, was a war between the industrial north and the agricultural south, which was built around slave labor.
China, it seems has its own story, and maybe one of these […]

The past 2 sessions, we have seen the markets take a decided breather. Yesterday and today, across the board, it seems that the world is taking a minute to think. The lone exception would be cotton, which ended the day limit bid old crop here, once again moving to historic highs. Read your history books, and you will learn how cotton once was the backbone of the US farm economy. The civil war, in part, was a war between the industrial north and the agricultural south, which was built around slave labor.
China, it seems has its own story, and maybe one of these […]

The volatility continues to chop and slice and dice like a Ginsu knife. Follow through is fleeting in a market where computer’s are running counter-intuitive programs to punish “conventional” thinking.
Certainly, if you got short on yesterday’s weakness, while in the long run you may be correct, the market moved violently enough to most likely stop you out of your position with a loss.

Day to day, one must manage losers properly. Deluding yourself that your position is correct and the market it wrong, is folly. Accepting slippage and taking heat is one thing, however, riding losers in an attempt to salvage your ego […]