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The volatility continues to chop and slice and dice like a Ginsu knife. Follow through is fleeting in a market where computer’s are running counter-intuitive programs to punish “conventional” thinking.
Certainly, if you got short on yesterday’s weakness, while in the long run you may be correct, the market moved violently enough to most likely stop you out of your position with a loss.

Day to day, one must manage losers properly. Deluding yourself that your position is correct and the market it wrong, is folly. Accepting slippage and taking heat is one thing, however, riding losers in an attempt to salvage your ego […]

The outside markets were lower today in the wake of 1) the Chinese ¼ pt rate hike in their interest rates in an attempt to address their domestic inflationary pressures.. As of this writing, the Cash Dow was down 153 pts at 10,892. The Dow posted a 17 month high yesterday and last Wednesday at 11,100. This capped a 7 week, 1,189 point rally from the August 27th low at 9920. Certainly, a correction might have been over due for the stock indexes.

The dollar index was up 1.378 at 78.515. The Dollar has rallied 5.23 from last Friday’s 9 month low at 76.335 […]

China raised its interest rate .25% overnight. Grains should be under pressure early, however, I am cynical enough to think this is a strategy on the part of Chinese to once again buy our food on sale.
First: The Grains…

There is support in CZ down at 521. That would completely fill the recent gap, and mark the half-way point pull back of the recent 1.34 jump from the October 4th 6 week low at 454 1/4 to the recent 2 year high last Wednesday, Oct 13 at 588.
The gap is down to 528. First support is 537, then 521… If the wheels really […]

We rallied 1.34 in corn in 6 sessions, complete with a 25 cent gap on the daily charts in CZ from 528 3/4 to 554 1/2 on the daily charts. This morning’s high was a fresh 2 year high print. Talk continues…the question, “Will this be 2007-2008 all over again?” That old high in corn at 705 looms. A bearish hook on the chart might give shorts some comfort, however, I will be more interested in how we close this week on Friday.

From the low at 454 1/4 on May 12th up to today’s high at 588, 38% back is 537, 1/2 way back […]

Interesting that the USDA lowered the yield from an expected 160, not to 158, but to 155 bushels an acre. Acres planted increased 300K, but with this shocker, the market responded the only way it could. Limit bid all day, with expanded limits of looking at us on Sunday Night.

Bean yields were 44.4, but acres dropped 1.2 million. Beans rallied the limit, 70 cents to settle SX at 1135. The wheat settled limit bid as well, up 60 cents at 719.

Today is a perfect example of why i never take positions into big reports, unless I have a very very healthy cushion […]

Tommorrow represents one thing. Opportunity. The volatility should give lots of room for interesting moves.

I like fading the one month, 6 cent down move in the dollar. Not permanently, but certainly it looks a little late in the day to be piling on the shorts. On Sep 10th we saw a high at 83.30 Today’s 9 month low at 77.15 came very close to our old Jan 13th low at 76.89. Perhaps that explains the snap back higher. We could easily bounce back to 79.50 or even 80.25… I like selling the dollar at 80.25 again if we snap back there.

As we head […]

Tommorrow represents one thing. Opportunity. The volatility should give lots of room for interesting moves.

I like fading the one month, 6 cent down move in the dollar. Not permanently, but certainly it looks a little late in the day to be piling on the shorts. On Sep 10th we saw a high at 83.30 Today’s 9 month low at 77.15 came very close to our old Jan 13th low at 76.89. Perhaps that explains the snap back higher. We could easily bounce back to 79.50 or even 80.25… I like selling the dollar at 80.25 again if we snap back there.

As we head […]

The bottom won’t be in the Dollar until The TV talking heads are lamenting the decline. When Katie Couric and Matt Lauer ask to be paid in Gold instead of US Dollars, that will be the bottom in the US Dollar and the top in Gold. Mark my words. If this keeps up, you will have all the nut jobs calling the US greenback “fiat” money climbing out from their assorted rocks and holes in the wall. The first book I ever read about invsesting was by accident in 1975. I was 9 years old and found and old copy of “crisis investing”. If memory […]

Five Trading sessions ago on 9/27, CZ posted an overnight high at 528 3/4. That was also a new 2 year high. The rally started from our June contract low at 343 1/4. From trough to tip, that’s 185.50. In 5 trading sessions we gave back 63 cents or 34 percent. Welcome to the wonderful world of futures trading. The funds are still long about 300K contracts. Where are they going to go with those? This could push us all the way back to 458, 436 and then , 414. How long will we continue the puke fest of longs who stayed to long, or […]

Bulls are out in the Grains. Fundamental news supporting technical factors in Corn and Beans. New crop beans settle above 11.00 a bushel. Final settlement a 2 year high in SX at 11.26 after posting a 2 year high today at 1128-1/4. For the week, SX gained 57 cents. Longer term technicals make me look for a rally up to 11.82 next. I like owning 12-13 dollar call spreads to take advantage of this bullishness. However, will we run straight up? I can’t imagine that scenario. However, I firmly believe that a pull back to the 11.00 level is a buying opportunity.

Bullish rumors out […]