Today, I exited the 2/3 of the long gold position. 40 bucks in 3 days was a great pop.
I have taken profits on the short Dow position, and remain net short a small position. I still don’t think this market can get above the 12,400 level. I continue to look for a sell off down to the 11,900 level, or the 11,650 level.
I like buying July beans at 1330, and may beans at 1320. we are due for a nice 50 cent bounce higher after the dollar sell off we saw over the past 11 trading days.
Crude oil remains a frustrating trade for me. I had longs on from 108, got out at 106.50, could not get filled at 105.25 on a resting buy order. Today, we are back at the 110 level, hovering at 109.57.
Sometimes the timing isnt there, and sometimes, your stops are in the wrong place.
I still believe that the trend for oil is up. I want to see if we can break above the 113.00
Being a contrarian, I am going to have some sell orders up there right above 113.00
level, however.
For Corn, we are into the weather market. Too wet, Too dry, all are bullish for corn. Look at CZ new crop corn. Its telling us on the charts, that the top has not been reached. Buy dips, but be very disciplined in your sell stops to insure your exit point as soon as you establish a long.
That is all.
Have a great weekend.
Best
CER
I’ve been following your comments for a while. Many of them are enlightening. The most recent short in Dow index is an equally awesome contrarian call. As always, you have stop order to protect your contrarian positions. I was wondering if you use TA to decide the points at which you initiate contrarian position and set your protective stop order. For instance, you flipped to long gold position once it broke upwards thru 1450. Is this 1450 a level based on TA ? Thanks.
Dear Chinasmatter.. Thank you for your post and question.
I believe in simple is better. I read the John Murphy book in 1990 and continue to pull it out and look at it. I advise you to do the same. Its listed in my books i suggest on the home page.
I always like to trade around “round numbers” 1450 in gold. 13 dollar beans. Dow at 12,000 or 10,000.
Those round numbers attract trade. Bullish or bearish, people make their bets on those round numbers. Its just human nature. Look at the trade activity at the 1300 level for S&P futures as well. Round numbers are targets. Targets give you trading opportunity. Then its just a matter of managing the trade, no matter if you are long or short.
As for the Dow, I turned cautiosly bearish when we rallied 5,000 points from the bottom tick at 6460 in Dow Cash. 11,460 was that level, we never got to 12,460.. That would have been a 6000 point rally. Again, its just the ’round number effect’…. Thanks for the input. If you like my rec’s spread the word. I have a group of clients that I work with, as their broker as well.
Best
Chris